NASA Changes the Mileposts, Again

Posted on by onespaceman2000
Image (Credit): NASA’s February 2026 somewhat confusing graphic that seems to indicate we will either be on the Moon by 2028 or simply orbiting around the Moon and thinking about it for years to come. (NASA)

It is hard to keep up with the space program these days, between potential budget cuts last year, the recent changes to the Artemis III mission, and now the changes this week by the new NASA administrator.

So what is the latest? Let’s start with the Moon mission. According to a a new set of initiatives released this week, the idea of a permanently crewed lunar base, or even a base that can be used for two months at a time, is moving further into the future. The whole theme appears to be “ignition,” but not “arrival,” mind you.

Here are the new plans:

  • Phase One: Build, Test, Learn: NASA shifts from bespoke, infrequent missions to a repeatable, modular approach. Through CLPS (Commercial Lunar Payload Services) deliveries and the LTV (Lunar Terrain Vehicle) program, the agency will increase the tempo of lunar activity, sending rovers, instruments, and technology demonstrations that advance mobility, power generation (including radioisotope heater units and radioisotope thermoelectric generators), communications, navigation, surface operations, and a wide range of scientific investigations.

  • Phase Two: Establish Early Infrastructure: With lessons from early missions in hand, NASA moves toward semi‑habitable infrastructure and regular logistics. This phase supports recurring astronaut operations on the surface and incorporates major international contributions, including JAXA’s (Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency) pressurized rover, and potentially other partner scientific payloads, rovers, and infrastructure/transportation capabilities.

  • Phase Three: Enable Long‑Duration Human Presence: As cargo‑capable human landing systems (HLS) come online, NASA will deliver heavier infrastructure needed for a continuous human foothold on the Moon, marking the transition from periodic expeditions to a permanent lunar base. This will include ASI’s (Italian Space Agency) Multi-purpose Habitats (MPH), CSA’s (Canadian Space Agency) Lunar Utility Vehicle, and opportunities for additional contributions in habitation, surface

Phase One makes sense – let’s keep trying. You may remember the various commercial lunar missions in recent years that have faced severe issues on or around the Moon. For instance, we had:

What worries me is that the past could be a predictor for the future. Other than Blue Ghost, NASA and the commercial sector have little to brag about. If this continues, how long do we wait? Is the commercial sector even ready for this new work and expected pace?

Phase Two is talking about agreements with Japan at a time that NASA’s credibility with any of its partnerships is questionable given the attitude in the White House. For instance, since 2022 Japan has been a partner in the Lunar Gateway project that the White House tried to kill last year and NASA has now paused (or more likely killed) this week. Such actions do not build confidence between the two space programs, nor the space programs of other nations also assisting with the Lunar Gateway. Also, what does it mean to live in semi‑habitable infrastructure? That is a semi-scary term. Do they mean “semi-permanent” infrastructure?

Phase Three assumes the successful creation of a HLS by SpaceX and Blue Origin, but the companies do not have a lot of time to create simpler landing craft for Artemis III, iron out their bugs, and maybe even completely scrap their current multiple rocket refueling design. Moreover, these simpler models are expected to expand into the full HLS models. So what does that mean in terms of getting actual astronauts on the Moon for Artemis IV and cargo thereafter?

NASA notes that the simpler landing systems will not only need to be created for the Artemis III low Earth orbit test in 2027, but then those companies have to also prove that they can safely land whatever they create on the lunar surface without a crew before Artemis IV in early 2028. We are asking this of two companies that have never done anything like this. SpaceX is still playing with its Starship after all of his promises that he would be much further ahead by now. It has not even had a launch test in the past six months. Again, my confidence is waning.

Finally, a new timeline interlaced with the Artemis timeline would be nice. My fear is that all of this complexity and busy work means we will be arriving on the Moon after the Chinese have set up camp. Having some clear dates aligned with the phases above would help to alleviate this concern.

Television: Season Five of For All Mankind

Posted on by onespaceman2000
Credit: Apple TV

If you thought last season of For All Mankind was hair-raising with the disasters and battles on Mars, wait until you see what happens this season.

This trailer from Apple TV gives you a taste of the drama coming to your television on March 27th. We see the return of many of our favorite characters (those who survived) as well as a few new ones.

The season picks up years after the “Martians” hijack an asteroid intended for Earth, thereby giving the Martian economy plenty of mining revenue. Apple TV states:

Happy Valley has grown into a thriving colony with thousands of residents and a base for new missions that will take us even further into the solar system. But with the nations of Earth now demanding law and order on the Red Planet, friction continues to build between the people who live on Mars and their former home.

It did not take long for the new Martians to seek independence. We may want to keep that in mind as we continue to allow Mr. Musk to be the spokesperson for the colonization of Mars. He does not play well with others on this planet, so good luck with him running the show on Mars.

Anyway, the series offered plenty of ideas regarding a space race for a lunar base followed by a space race for Mars. The only odd part of this series is that while the USSR and North Korea are present on Mars, we hear almost nothing about China and its space program.

As NASA contemplates a whole new approach to the Moon and Mars (as highlighted just today), it’s fun to watch a show where the space travel timetable is faster and the private sector is more engaged with its own separate mission to Mars. Again, I can picture this happening with SpaceX, where Blue Origin takes the lead on the Moon and Musk takes all of his marbles so he can proceed to Mars on his own.

One thing we can bet on with our expansion into space, regardless of the timetable, is that mankind’s foibles will be front and center in any of these space missions. The hardware issues will be easy to solve compared to dealing with the egos and emotions of space-bound humanity.

In the meantime, while we await the real thing, sit back and enjoy Apple TV’s version of our future in space.

Note: Apple TV announced earlier today that the sixth season of the series will be the last.

Space Stories: The Fate of Juno, the End of a NASA Probe, and “Extragalactic Archeology”

Posted on by onespaceman2000
Image (Credit): Jupiter’s North Pole at minimum emission angle as captured by the Juno spacecraft. (NASA/JPL-Caltech/SwRI/MSSS/Thomas Thomopoulos)

Here are some recent space-related stories of interest.

—Ars Technica: “A Mission NASA Might Kill is Still Returning Fascinating Science from Jupiter“

Jupiter’s colossal storms generate lightning flashes at least 100 times more powerful than those on Earth, according to scientists analyzing data from NASA’s Juno spacecraft. The findings were published March 20 in the journal AGU Advances. Researchers used data recorded by Juno in 2021 and 2022, after NASA granted an extension to the spacecraft’s operations upon completing a five-year science campaign at Jupiter. Juno remains in good health, but NASA officials have not said if they will approve another extension for the mission. The issue is money.

—Astronomy.com: “NASA’s Van Allen Probe A Burns Up Over the Pacific after 14 Years in Space“

NASA’s Van Allen Probe A re-entered Earth’s atmosphere on Wednesday, March 11, at 6:37 a.m. EDT, marking the final chapter for a spacecraft that reshaped scientists’ understanding of the radiation environment around our planet. The U.S. Space Force confirmed the spacecraft came down over the eastern Pacific Ocean. NASA said most of the 1,300-pound (600 kilograms) probe burned up during reentry, though some pieces may have reached the surface. Its twin, Probe B, remains in orbit and is not expected to re-enter before 2030. The twin probes launched together on Aug. 30, 2012, on what was supposed to be a two-year mission. They operated for nearly seven years instead, circling Earth inside the Van Allen radiation belts — zones of high-energy charged particles held in place by the planet’s magnetic field. 

—Carnegie Science: ““Extragalactic Archeology” Reveals Nearby Galaxy’s Evolution“

A team of astronomers, including Carnegie Science’s Jeff Rich and other former Carnegie Observatories astronomers, have for the first time traced the history of a galaxy outside our own Milky way by studying chemical fingerprints in deep space, a new approach they are calling “extragalactic archeology.” Their findings are published in Nature Astronomy. “This is the first time that a chemical archaeology method has been used with such fine detail outside our own galaxy,” said lead author Lisa Kewley of the Center for Astrophysics | Harvard and Smithsonian.

Russia Resupplying the International Space Station

Posted on by onespaceman2000
Image (Credit): The Soyuz rocket carrying the Progress 94 mission just prior to launch. (Roscosmos)

The Russians successfully launched a cargo shipment of food, fuel, and supplies to the International Space Station (ISS) earlier today. The Roscosmos Progress 94 spacecraft left the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan aboard a Soyuz rocket.

Not everything was perfect, but there is no need to worry. An antenna issue may compromise the unmanned attaching to the ISS on Tuesday morning, but manual controls are available. The Russians are more than able to perform this tasks.

The Progress 94 spacecraft was originally slated for a December 2025 launch, but it had to be delayed due to earlier rocket damage at the Baikonur Cosmodrome. With repairs completed, things appear to be back to normal at the site.

You can watch the entire launch via the NASA site on YouTube.

Another Take on NASA’s Ability to Maneuver an Asteroid

Posted on by onespaceman2000
Credit: Random House

While everyone is pretty excited about NASA’s ability to nudge a distant asteroid via its Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission, there is more than one way to look at this event. While many see this as a new tool to protect the Earth from approaching peril, Carl Sagan saw this it more as a double-edged sword.

In his 1994 book Pale Blue Dot: A Vision of the Human Future in Space, Dr. Sagan wrote:

Can we humans be trusted with civilization-threatening technologies? If the chance is almost one in a thousand that much of the human population will be killed by an impact in the next century, isn’t it more likely that asteroid deflection technology will get into the wrong hands in another century—some misanthropic sociopath like a Hitler or a Stalin eager to kill everybody, a megalomaniac lusting after “greatness” and “glory,” a victim of ethnic violence bent on revenge, someone in the grip of unusually severe testosterone poisoning, some religious fanatic hastening the Day of Judgment, or just technicians incompetent or insufficiently vigilant in handling the controls and safeguards? Such people exist. The risks seem far worse than the benefits, the cure worse than the disease.

You might also remember the stealth asteroids directed at Earth by terrorists in the fifth season of the television series The Expanse. Yes, it is science fiction, but so wasn’t the idea of landing humans on the Moon until it was a fact.

As we watch the Middle East burn again, it is not hard to imagine a battle involving sociopaths, ethnic violence victims, leaders with severe testosterone poisoning, religious fanatics, or even incompetent individuals without guardrails making more of a mess of the Earth and its surroundings.

It’s just a thought.