
The latest Harper’s Index from Harper’s magazine had a few interesting statistics related to space travel and alien encounters (something discussed in Friday’s post).
Here are the two stastistics:
- Portion of Americans in 1998 who believed that space travel would be common for ordinary Americans by 2025: 3/10
- Portion of Americans in 1998 who believed that humans would make contact with extraterrestrial life by 2025: 1/4
Both come from a Gallup poll conducted back in 1998. You can read more about the various survey results in this Gallup story.
Given that the Artemis II mission is still struggling to get to the Moon, and the only new life we seem to have encountered was created in a laboratory by OpenAI and others, I would say we are far from this mark. However, Americans were a little better at predicting some of the social trends, including the 69 percent who expected the country would elect a Black president by 2025.
It is also good that some of the predictions were off, particularly those related to disease, disaster, and war (shown below). Then again, the respondents (76 percent) who predicted the emergence of a deadly new disease were spot on regarding COVID.





