Study Findings: Verification of the Outer Space Treaty with Cosmic Protons

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Credit: Image by PIRO 4D from Pixabay.

Nature abstract of study findings:

The Outer Space Treaty (OST) was opened to signatures in 1967 and, since then, 117 countries, including China, the USA and Russia, have become part of it. Among other stipulations, the treaty bans the placement of nuclear weapons in outer space. Recently, the US government has raised worries that Russia is testing nuclear-armed anti-satellite weapon (ASAT) components, with the possibility that it will place a nuclear weapon in space. Such a device, if detonated, would destroy most of the satellites in the low Earth orbit. This danger is compounded by the lack of a verification mechanism for the OST. No methodologies of verification have been proposed in the open peer-reviewed literature. Here a concept and feasibility study is presented for verifying a satellite’s compliance to the OST by observing the neutrons induced by spallation from the approximately GeV protons in the inner Van Allen radiation belts. The calculations show that a 9U-CubeSat-sized detection platform can identify a thermonuclear weapon from a distance of 4 km in approximately one week of observation. This conceptual study will stimulate and inform future research and development of verification platforms for the OST.

Citation: Danagoulian, A. Verification of the Outer Space Treaty with cosmic protons. Nature, 655, 585–590 (2026).

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10783-2

Study-related stories:

Nuclear Newswire – “MIT Professor Develops Method to Verify Compliance with Outer Space Treaty”

Science News – “Nature Study Identifies a New Way to Spot Nuclear Weapons in Orbit”

Discover Magazine – “Proposed Satellite Detector Could Identify Nuclear Weapons in Orbit With More Than 99 Percent Confidence”

Podcast: AI Data Centers in Space

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If you are following the debate about whether data centers belong in orbit, this Freakonomics Radio podcast titled “Should A.I. Move to Space?” may be for you.

Guest host Steve Levitt talks to a number of experts about the role of AI in our economy. I recommend listing to all of the podcast since much of it touches on the logistics of data centers in orbit, but it is the later part of the podcast involving a discussion with Will Marshall, co-founder and C.E.O. of Planet Labs, that peaked my attention. He discusses both the role of Planet Labs as its satellites monitors every corner of the Earth’s surface as well as the need for AI data centers in space.

In terms of the Planet Lab satellites, I found his most intriguing statements were related to the reduced costs of satellites. While most of the stories in the press seem to be about the decrease in rocket costs, Mr. Marshall said the real transformation is the miniaturization of satellites. Even under the earlier rocket system (pre-SpaceX), the drop in satellite costs due to smaller satellites would have been incredible.

In the quote below, Mr. Marshall is referring initially to the lower rocket costs, but then he expands into the real cost saving:

But remember even a four or five x reduction in cost, which really helps the whole space industry and has helped spawn it, is less significant, purely from an economic standpoint, than the 100 to a 1,000x improvement in cost performance of satellites that are going in. So, in each kilogram that you put up into space, if you can get a hundred times more data, because you’ve made the satellite way smaller, then you have won big time, even if the launch cost didn’t change one iota.

In his discussion about AI data centers, Mr. Marshall also has a unique view about the role of the Earth’s surface versus space:

I think it’s inevitable that, within a 10-ish year timeframe, most computers being built on the Earth will be going to space. I actually think not only is it going to be economically cheaper, but it’s going to be more sustainable. Earth’s life is so precious, it’s incredible, but yet we’re whittling away a lot of it. We’re doing deforestation for lithium, for cows, for whatever, we’re doing it. And we need to put our energy-intensive infrastructure into orbit, if we can, to not have a collision course with the biodiversity on the planet,

The podcast episode is in two parts, so be sure to listen to the second part when it comes out.

Space Stories: English Observatory Closing, an Early Warning System for Astronomers, and Accessing Europa’s Ocean

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Image (Credit): The Jodrell Bank Observatory in Cheshire, England. (Jodrell Bank)

Here are some recent space-related stories of interest.

—The Guardian: “Jodrell Bank Observatory Facing Closure After Major Funder Cuts Support“

Jodrell Bank Observatory, the hub of a world-leading network of radio telescopes, is facing closure after government funding for the facility was slashed. Scientists say decision is blow to UK astronomy as deep space observatory is home to world-leading facilities. The deep space observatory includes the Grade I-listed Lovell telescope and is prized by astronomers who study galaxies, black holes, star formation, planets beyond the solar system and the afterglow of the big bang.

—ZME Science: “Astronomers Are Building an ‘Artificial Retina’ to Protect Telescope Images From Satellites“

A telescope can spend hours collecting the faint light of a distant galaxy. A fast-moving satellite needs only a few seconds to cross its field of view, leaving a bright streak that contaminates (and sometimes ruins) the long exposure. As the number of satellites around Earth grows, astronomers increasingly need ways to predict and avoid these crossings. Researchers at the University of Warwick are now developing an early-warning system that could spot an approaching satellite and alert a telescope before it enters the image.

—Rutgers: “Why Europa’s Hidden Ocean May Be More Difficult to Reach Than Scientists Thought“

Europa, one of Jupiter’s icy moons, long has fascinated scientists because of what may lie beneath its frozen shell: a global ocean of liquid water. That hidden ocean has made Europa one of the most compelling places in the solar system to study the conditions that might support life. But new research led by Rutgers scientist Lujendra Ojha suggests one of the most promising shortcuts to Europa’s ocean may be far more complicated than previously thought.

Note: Here is the podcast version of this post.

View of the Canadian Fires from Space

Posted on by onespaceman2000
Image (Credit): Image from July 14, 2026 showing the smoke from Canadian fires covering eastern parts of Canada and the U.S. (NASA Earth Observatory/Lauren Dauphin)

For those in the northeastern part of the United States, the impact of the ongoing Canadian fires is clear to see outside your window. A more distant view from a satellite (as shown above from earlier in the week) gives a better picture of what is occurring in Ontario and its impact on the surrounding region.

According to the latest data from the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre (CIFFC), about 904 fires are currently burning across Canada, with 190 of the fires burning in Ontario.

Image (Credit): Wildland fire activity in Canada as of July 17, 2026. (CIFFC)

Space Stories: Too Much Satellite Sunlight, Sugar and Spice in Space, and Super Black Satellite Paint

Posted on by onespaceman2000
Credit: Pixabay

Here are some recent space-related stories of interest.

—Universe Space Tech: “The Earendil-1 Satellite, Equipped with its Large Mirror, Has Caused Discontent Among Astronomers“

The United States Federal Communications Commission (FCC) has granted approval to Reflect Orbital to proceed with testing its innovative Earendil-1 satellite. This spacecraft features a substantial mirror engineered to redirect sunlight towards the nighttime side of Earth. The primary objective of the startup is to augment energy supply to solar power facilities and illuminate extensive regions up to 5 kilometers in width. By the year 2035, the company intends to deploy a constellation comprising 50,000 such orbital reflectors. Notwithstanding the potential advantages for agriculture and emergency services, the initiative has elicited grave concerns within the community.

—CBS News: “Astronomers Discover Sugar in Space That’s Also Found in Raspberries: ‘Just Floating Out in the Galaxy‘”

The space between stars just got a little sweeter. Astronomers have detected a type of sugar in space that’s also found in raspberries and self-tanners. The sugar, called erythrulose, lurks in what’s called the interstellar medium: thin clouds of gas and dust littered between stars. Sugar does more than sweeten tea and powder doughnuts. Different varieties fuel our cells and even make up DNA. Scientists are itching to know how sugars form because they’re a key ingredient for life as we know it.

—Science Alert: “Vantablack: World’s Blackest Paint Could Solve A Major Problem For Astronomy“

Low Earth orbit is becoming increasingly crowded with satellites, and they’re quietly erasing our view of the Universe…Chaturvedi and a team of researchers in the UK think they might have the answer: Vantablack 310, a specific formulation of one of the blackest materials ever developed, intended for use on spacecraft. In lab tests, coating satellites with Vantablack 310 meant that only 2 percent of incoming light was reflected.

Note: Here is the podcast version of this post.