Space Quote: China, the Moon, and the Military

Posted on by onespaceman2000
Image (Credit): China’s Chang’e-4 Lander on the Moon’s surface, as captured by the Yutu-2 rover in early 2019. (CNSA)

“Politically, China’s lunar program has demonstrated an ability to undertake cutting edge scientific programs, as demonstrated in the innovative Chang’e-4 and Chang’e-6 probes. In terms of direct military benefits, its value is more limited. China is not in a direct space race with any other state, nor is it racing to establish settlements or “space colonies.” While there are theories of how one might employ a lunar base to undertake surveillance or even kinetic operations against terrestrial targets, the costs associated with such ambitions would be enormous. Surveillance platforms on the Moon, for example, would be almost 240,000 miles from Earth. To obtain high resolution images would be enormously costly. It is not at all clear that such efforts would win a cost-benefit analysis against systems in standard earth orbits (LEO, MEO, GEO), or even air-breathing systems. Instead, the most likely military benefits are in terms of improvements in Chinese space support capabilities, thus expanding the volume of space employed for military purposes.”

-Statement by Dean Cheng, Senior Fellow at the Potomac Institute for Policy Studies, from a hearing before the House Science, Space, and Technology Committee, Space and Aeronautics Subcommittee titled “Strategic Trajectories Assessing China’s Space Rise and the Risks to U.S. Leadership.” Mr. Cheng was one of four witnesses at the hearing.

Space Stories: Threat to Chinese Space Station, Solar Storms on the ISS, and Dream Chaser Prep Continues

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Credit: Image by Clker-Free-Vector-Images from Pixabay

Here are some recent space-related stories of interest.

—Time: “China’s Imperiled Astronauts Illustrate the Dangers of Space Debris“

No trip to space can be counted a success unless you make it safely back to Earth…And it’s a lesson that was learned anew this week by the taikonauts—Chinese astronauts—Chen Dong, Chen Zhongrui, and Wang Jie. The trio arrived at China’s Tiangong Space Station aboard their Shenzhou-20 spacecraft on April 24, and were set to come home on Nov. 5, handing the keys to the station over to the three-person crew of Shenzhou-21, who arrived on Oct. 31. But that was not to be. Not long before Shenzhou-20 was set to carry the three home it was struck by a piece of space debris, leaving cracks in one of its windows. That can be deadly in a spacecraft that is supposed to remain airtight both in the vacuum of space and in the steadily thickening atmosphere as it returns to Earth.

—Yahoo News: “Russian Cosmonauts Take Shelter on International Space Station During Severe Solar Storm“

A powerful geomagnetic storm that dazzled skywatchers across the Northern Hemisphere earlier this month also affected life aboard the International Space Station (ISS). During the Nov. 11-12 solar storm, Russian cosmonauts temporarily relocated their sleeping quarters as a precaution against increased radiation exposure, NASA confirmed.

—Space News: “Dream Chaser Completes Key Tests Ahead of First Flight“

Sierra Space has completed key testing milestones for its Dream Chaser vehicle as the company explores both civil and national security missions for the spaceplane. The company announced Nov. 13 that the first Dream Chaser vehicle, Tenacity, completed electromagnetic interference and compatibility testing at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center...While Sierra Space is emphasizing national security uses, the company is keeping open the option of using Dream Chaser to support the ISS or future commercial space stations, known as commercial low Earth orbit destinations, or CLDs.

If at First You Don’t Succeed: Jared Isaacman is Really Back

Posted on by onespaceman2000
Image (Credit): Artist’s rendering of Blue Origin’s Blue Moon Mark 1, which is a single-launch, lunar cargo lander. (Blue Origin)

President Trump has had a change of heart on Jared Isaacman, his initial nominee for NASA administrator until he withdrew that nomination earlier this year.

Earlier today, the President posted the following:

Jared’s passion for Space, astronaut experience, and dedication to pushing the boundaries of exploration, unlocking the mysteries of the universe, and advancing the new space economy, make him ideally suited to lead NASA into a bold new era.

So what has changed in the last few months to make Mr. Isaacman “ideally suited” to lead NASA as compared to when he was determine unsuitable? I cannot think of anything other than the end of the President’s feud with Elon Musk. Of course, that was recently replaced with Elon Musk’s feud with acting NASA Administrator Sean Duffy, who proposed reopening competition for the first manned Moon landing this century due to delays with SpaceX’s Starship.

Will Mr. Isaacman save Musk’s Moon mission? He may calm some of the acrimony for the time being, but any new NASA administrator had better have a solid plan to get Americans back on the Moon before China does. Mr. Isaacman may be friends with Mr. Musk, but should he be confirmed he will head a weakened space agency that is struggling with a complex Moon mission that may be much less complex without the Starship refueling plans. In fact, Blue Origin just submitted a new Moon mission plan that drops this refueling altogether.

It is not impossible the winds will shift again, leaving Mr. Isaacman adrift once more. That is how it is in Washington these days. Fickle leadership leads to fickle decision-making and fickle planning.

The Chinese are not having these issues at the moment as they aim to be on the Moon by 2030.

A Day in Astronomy: Letter to General Secretary Brezhnev

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Image: USSR 1991 Yuri A. Gagarin Stamps.

The U.S. has plenty of issues regarding the pace of its space programs in the face of Chinese achievements, as noted multiple times in posts on this site. We should not see this as anything new. U.S. politicians and citizens had plenty of similar complaints during the space race with the USSR, and we also have evidence of similar complaints within the USSR.

For instance, on this day in 1965, Yuri Gagarin, the first man in space, wrote a letter with other cosmonauts to the USSR’s General Secretary Brezhnev with a list of concerns. The letter stated, in part:

The USA have not only caught up with us, but even surpassed us in certain areas. The flights of space vehicles Ranger-7, Ranger-8, Mariner-4, Gemini-5, and others are serious achievements of American scientists. This lagging behind of our homeland in space exploration is especially objectionable to us, cosmonauts, but it also damages the prestige of the Soviet Union and has a negative effect on the defense efforts of the countries from the socialist camp…Why is the Soviet Union losing its leading position in space research? A common answer to this question answer is as follows: the USA have developed a very wide front of research in space; they allocate enormous funds for space research. In the past 5 years they spent more than 20 billion dollars, and in 1965 alone 7 billion dollars. This answer is basically correct. It is well known that the USA spend on space exploration much more than does the USSR.

The letter covers other issues, including battles between the various organizations involved in space affairs as well as a stated preference by some for robotic flights rather than manned-flights.

It is an interesting reminder that the same issues constantly crop up to potentially cripple space initiatives, and today’s leader in space can quickly fall behind.

Bill Nye is in Washington, DC to Support NASA

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Image (Credit): An earlier image of Bill Nye showing his support for NASA employees. (The Planetary Society)

You may have heard that the federal government has shut down, but that did not stop the Planetary Society’s CEO Bill Nye from traveling to Washington, DC to protest NASA cuts. He was there with almost two dozen other organizations to protest the White House’s plans to cut 24 percent of NASA’s budget.

Highlighting the potential impact of cuts to NASA’s programs, Bill Nye stated:

The China National Space Administration is going fast, doing a lot of extraordinary missions very similar, almost mission for mission, to what the United States is doing and I’m telling you there’s going to be a Sputnik moment when Taikonauts, China National Space Administration space travelers, are on the moon in the next five years.

A recent report by the Ranking Member of the Senate’s Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation, titled The Destruction of NASA’s Mission, states the Trump Administration is already implementing the 2026 cuts at NASA even thought Congress has yet to approve a budget. The report summary notes:

As part of Ranking Member Cantwell’s oversight of the potential impacts of President Trump’s budget request (PBR) for Fiscal Year 2026 (FY26), Democratic staff of the Senate Commerce, Science, and Transportation have uncovered evidence of an illegal plot already in motion. Based on whistleblower documents and interviews, this staff report finds that the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) has been directing NASA —since early summer— to begin implementing the devastating cuts demanded in President Trump’s proposed budget for FY26, in clear violation of the Constitution and without regard for the impacts on NASA’s science missions and workforce.

Not surprisingly, the law seems to be no barrier to bad behavior for this administration, yet Mr. Nye and others are not giving in or giving up. Nor should anyone who believes NASA represents the best of what our astronomers and scientists can accomplish. The size of the proposed NASA cuts for FY 2026 are shown below. It is brutal.

You can show your support for NASA by visiting the Planetary Society’s Save NASA Science page.

Image (Credit): Proposed cuts to NASA’s FY 2026 budget. (Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation)