
“Politically, China’s lunar program has demonstrated an ability to undertake cutting edge scientific programs, as demonstrated in the innovative Chang’e-4 and Chang’e-6 probes. In terms of direct military benefits, its value is more limited. China is not in a direct space race with any other state, nor is it racing to establish settlements or “space colonies.” While there are theories of how one might employ a lunar base to undertake surveillance or even kinetic operations against terrestrial targets, the costs associated with such ambitions would be enormous. Surveillance platforms on the Moon, for example, would be almost 240,000 miles from Earth. To obtain high resolution images would be enormously costly. It is not at all clear that such efforts would win a cost-benefit analysis against systems in standard earth orbits (LEO, MEO, GEO), or even air-breathing systems. Instead, the most likely military benefits are in terms of improvements in Chinese space support capabilities, thus expanding the volume of space employed for military purposes.”
-Statement by Dean Cheng, Senior Fellow at the Potomac Institute for Policy Studies, from a hearing before the House Science, Space, and Technology Committee, Space and Aeronautics Subcommittee titled “Strategic Trajectories Assessing China’s Space Rise and the Risks to U.S. Leadership.” Mr. Cheng was one of four witnesses at the hearing.



