NASA’s Apollo moonshots are a tough act to follow, even after all this time. As four astronauts get set to blast off on humanity’s first trip to the moon in more than half a century, comparisons between Apollo and NASA’s new Artemis program are inevitable. The world’s first lunar visitors orbited the moon on Apollo 8. The Artemis II crew will play it safe and zip around the moon in an out-and-back slingshot. Another key difference: Artemis reflects more of society, with a woman, person of color and Canadian rocketing away.
The hazards that the Artemis II crew must navigate during their 10-day flight are plentiful, starting from the second they launch aboard the most powerful rocket to ever carry humans and continuing all the way through their return to Earth nestled inside the Orion capsule. Many threats the crew will face are obvious, but not all of them are. Take, for example, radiation, which with moderate exposures can increase an astronaut’s long-term risk of cancer and with heavy doses can cause acute sickness. The Artemis II crew will be the first humans in decades to travel beyond low-Earth orbit, fully discarding the protection of Earth’s magnetic field. And while most aspects of cosmic radiation are straightforward to plan for, the outlier is space weather.
Today, potential conflict zones in space are limited to a region between low-Earth orbit and geosynchronous orbit, from a few hundred miles altitude up to 22,000 miles. The Space Force is in the final stages of developing a roadmap for the next 15 years, identifying where the service needs to grow and evolve to respond to changing threats and priorities. The document hasn’t been released publicly, but Pentagon officials have said it will address the possibility of the the Moon or cislunar space, the region of space around the Moon, becoming a theater for military operations.
Image (Credit): The ISS’s “window to the world” is pictured from the Nauka Multipurpose Laboratory Module. (NASA)
“We expected a launch market that was going to take off. We expected tourism to take off. We expected the ability to do research and technology development on the International Space Station, bring it back to Earth and mass produce it…We’re not seeing any of those three things.”
–Statement by Joel Montalbano, NASA’s acting associate administrator for space operations, addressing the need for NASA to build onto the current International Space Station (ISS), which is part of the newly announced NASA space initiatives. Mr. Montalbano was speaking at a March 25th hearing before the House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology, Subcommittee on Space and Aeronautics. The vice ranking member of the full committee, Rep. George Whitesides (D-CA), questioned NASA’s new approach, stating:
Based on the old plan, several companies raised probably in excess of $2 billion in private capital and did so on the expectation that NASA would follow through…My concern is that if NASA is not a reliable partner for private investors, we’re not going to get that money and we’re not going to then save money by being able to cost-share with the private sector.
Image (Credit):Two views of Saturn, one from NASA’s JWST and the second from the Hubble Space Telescope. (NASA, ESA, CSA, STScI, Amy Simon (NASA-GSFC), Michael Wong (UC Berkeley); Image Processing: Joseph DePasquale (STScI))
This week’s images of Saturn from 2024 were just released by NASA. They show the planet in a variety of ways, depending on the telescope and instruments being used. The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST or Webb) and Hubble Space Telescope each have their own unique abilities that can bring the distant gas giant to life.
In its comments on the two images above, NASA noted:
Together, scientists can effectively ‘slice’ through Saturn’s atmosphere at multiple altitudes, like peeling back the layers of an onion. Each telescope tells a different part of Saturn’s story, and the observations together help researchers understand how Saturn’s atmosphere works as a connected three-dimensional system. Both complement previous observations done by NASA’s Cassini orbiter during its time studying the Saturnian system from 1997 to 2017...These 2024 observations, taken 14 weeks apart, show the planet moving from northern summer toward the 2025 equinox. As Saturn transitions into southern spring, and later southern summer in the 2030’s, Hubble and Webb will have progressively better views of that hemisphere.
Image (Credit): NASA’s February 2026 somewhat confusing graphic that seems to indicate we will either be on the Moon by 2028 or simply orbiting around the Moon and thinking about it for years to come. (NASA)
So what is the latest? Let’s start with the Moon mission in today’s post. According to a new set of initiatives released this week, the idea of a permanently crewed lunar base, or even a base that can be used for two months at a time, is moving further into the future. The whole theme appears to be “ignition,” but not “arrival,” mind you.
Here are the new plans:
Phase One: Build, Test, Learn: NASA shifts from bespoke, infrequent missions to a repeatable, modular approach. Through CLPS (Commercial Lunar Payload Services) deliveries and the LTV (Lunar Terrain Vehicle) program, the agency will increase the tempo of lunar activity, sending rovers, instruments, and technology demonstrations that advance mobility, power generation (including radioisotope heater units and radioisotope thermoelectric generators), communications, navigation, surface operations, and a wide range of scientific investigations.
Phase Two: Establish Early Infrastructure: With lessons from early missions in hand, NASA moves toward semi‑habitable infrastructure and regular logistics. This phase supports recurring astronaut operations on the surface and incorporates major international contributions, including JAXA’s (Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency) pressurized rover, and potentially other partner scientific payloads, rovers, and infrastructure/transportation capabilities.
Phase Three: Enable Long‑Duration Human Presence: As cargo‑capable human landing systems (HLS) come online, NASA will deliver heavier infrastructure needed for a continuous human foothold on the Moon, marking the transition from periodic expeditions to a permanent lunar base. This will include ASI’s (Italian Space Agency) Multi-purpose Habitats (MPH), CSA’s (Canadian Space Agency) Lunar Utility Vehicle, and opportunities for additional contributions in habitation, surface
Phase One makes sense – let’s keep trying. You may remember the various commercial lunar missions in recent years that have faced severe issues on or around the Moon. For instance, we had:
The Peregrine Mission One mission never made it to the Moon due to a propellant leak, so it just floated off into space.
The Odysseus lunar landertipped over upon landing on the lunar surface, preventing it from completing its mission.
What worries me is that the past could be a predictor for the future. Other than Blue Ghost, NASA and the commercial sector have little to brag about. If this continues, how long do we wait? Is the commercial sector even ready for this new work and expected pace?
Phase Two is talking about agreements with Japan at a time that NASA’s credibility with any of its partnerships is questionable given the attitude in the White House. For instance, since 2022 Japan has been a partner in the Lunar Gateway project that the White House tried to kill last year and NASA has now paused (or more likely killed) this week. Such actions do not build confidence between the two space programs, nor the space programs of other nations also assisting with the Lunar Gateway. Also, what does it mean to live in semi‑habitable infrastructure? That is a semi-scary term. Do they mean “semi-permanent” infrastructure?
Phase Three assumes the successful creation of a HLS by SpaceX and Blue Origin, but the companies do not have a lot of time to create simpler landing craft for Artemis III, iron out their bugs, and maybe even completely scrap their current multiple rocket refueling design. Moreover, these simpler models are expected to expand into the full HLS models. So what does that mean in terms of getting actual astronauts on the Moon for Artemis IV and cargo thereafter?
NASA notes that the simpler landing systems will not only need to be created for the Artemis III low Earth orbit test in 2027, but then those companies have to also prove that they can safely land whatever they create on the lunar surface without a crew before Artemis IV in early 2028. We are asking this of two companies that have never done anything like this. SpaceX is still playing with its Starship after all of his promises that it would be much further ahead by now. SpaceX has not even had a launch test in the past six months. Again, is it any surprise if the public’s confidence is waning?
Finally, a new timeline interlaced with the Artemis timeline would be nice. My fear is that all of this complexity and busy work means we will be arriving on the Moon after the Chinese have set up camp. Having some clear dates aligned with the phases above would help to alleviate this concern.
If you thought last season of For All Mankind was hair-raising with the disasters and battles on Mars, wait until you see what happens this season.
This trailer from Apple TV gives you a taste of the drama coming to your television on March 27th. We see the return of many of our favorite characters (those who survived) as well as a few new ones.
The season picks up years after the “Martians” hijack an asteroid intended for Earth, thereby giving the Martian economy plenty of mining revenue. Apple TV states:
Happy Valley has grown into a thriving colony with thousands of residents and a base for new missions that will take us even further into the solar system. But with the nations of Earth now demanding law and order on the Red Planet, friction continues to build between the people who live on Mars and their former home.
It did not take long for the new Martians to seek independence. We may want to keep that in mind as we continue to allow Mr. Musk to be the spokesperson for the colonization of Mars. He does not play well with others on this planet, so good luck with him running the show on Mars.
Anyway, the series offered plenty of ideas regarding a space race for a lunar base followed by a space race for Mars. The only odd part of this series is that while the USSR and North Korea are present on Mars, we hear almost nothing about China and its space program.
As NASA contemplates a whole new approach to the Moon and Mars (as highlighted just today), it’s fun to watch a show where the space travel timetable is faster and the private sector is more engaged with its own separate mission to Mars. Again, I can picture this happening with SpaceX, where Blue Origin takes the lead on the Moon and Musk takes all of his marbles so he can proceed to Mars on his own.
One thing we can bet on with our expansion into space, regardless of the timetable, is that mankind’s foibles will be front and center in any of these space missions. The hardware issues will be easy to solve compared to dealing with the egos and emotions of space-bound humanity.
In the meantime, while we await the real thing, sit back and enjoy Apple TV’s version of our future in space.
Note: Apple TV announced earlier today that the sixth season of the series will be the last.
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