When is the Next Starship Launch?

Posted on by onespaceman2000
Image (Credit): Artist’s rendering of SpaceX’s Starship HLS preparing for a Moon landing. (SpaceX)

Mr. Musk seems to move like a weather vane regarding where SpaceX is going next, but whether SpaceX is heading for the Moon or Mars it still needs a functioning Starship.

First the confusion. For all of Musk’s ongoing criticism of a Moon mission, it appears he is finally focusing on Artemis III. On Sunday, he tweeted:

For those unaware, SpaceX has already shifted focus to building a self-growing city on the Moon, as we can potentially achieve that in less than 10 years, whereas Mars would take 20+ years.

The mission of SpaceX remains the same: extend consciousness and life as we know it to the stars.

It is only possible to travel to Mars when the planets align every 26 months (six month trip time), whereas we can launch to the Moon every 10 days (2 day trip time). This means we can iterate much faster to complete a Moon city than a Mars city.

That said, SpaceX will also strive to build a Mars city and begin doing so in about 5 to 7 years, but the overriding priority is securing the future of civilization and the Moon is faster.

It seems that someone explained planetary alignment to him over the weekend, but that’s a point for another day.

So the target this week will be the Moon. But a crewed landing on the Moon depends on SpaceX’s Human Landing System (HLS) at the moment, which is where the Starship comes in. Or, more to the point, this is where a multitude of Starships come into play between the refueling in orbit as well and the HLS.

Given that SpaceX planned for 25 Starship launches in 2025 yet achieved only 5, we have an issue Houston (or should I say “Starbase”?).

All indications are that the first launch in 2026 will be early next month (based on one sentence from Musk on January 26th stating “Starship launch in six weeks”), following the last launch of October 13th. Five months between launches is not a very robust schedule given that the Starship not only needs to work but also needs to test the idea of fueling in space before landing a crew on the Moon in 2028.

So far the only parts of Artemis that have proven to work are the Space Launch System and Orion capsule, which are also the two most demonized components said to be substandard based on what the private sector can provide. However, waiting on SpaceX for a workable Moon model is becoming about as logical as waiting for Twitter to become profitable.

Remember, Musk was supposed to have a crew on Mars two years ago. As the Planetary Society noted in 2017:

SpaceX’s previous plan called for landing its first transport ship on Mars in 2022. The timeline Musk gave today was similar; two cargo landers would land on Mars in 2022, with four vehicles launching in 2024. Two of those 2024 ships would be crewed, meaning, in Musk’s timeline, humans could walk on Mars in just seven years.

It now seems like 50/50 that SpaceX can get a crew on the Moon before the Chinese. NASA may need the help of Blue Origin before it has a workable plan.

It may be time to ignore SpaceX’s promises and plan for some new players without tossing out the older technology just yet.

Space Tourism Ends for Now at Blue Origin

Posted on by onespaceman2000
Image (Credit): The 38th and last New Shepard crew for some time. The crew from left to right is Alain Fernandez, Dr. Linda Edwards, Dr. Laura Stiles, Tim Drexler, Alberto Gutiérrez, and Jim Hendren. (Blue Origin)

If you didn’t find your way into orbit yet, your chances to do so in the near future have dropped precipitously.

Blue Origin is ending its New Shepard rocket flights for tourists starting immediately. The pause will last for at least two years while the company focuses on the upcoming Artemis III lunar mission.

In a press release, the company stated:

Blue Origin today announced it will pause its New Shepard flights and shift resources to further accelerate development of the company’s human lunar capabilities. The decision reflects Blue Origin’s commitment to the nation’s goal of returning to the Moon and establishing a permanent, sustained lunar presence.  

New Shepard is the first reusable spaceflight system to vertically land and has flown 38 times and carried 98 humans above the Kármán line to date. New Shepard has launched more than 200 scientific and research payloads from students, academia, research organizations, and NASA. This consistent and reliable performance, combined with an exceptional customer experience, has resulted in a multi-year customer backlog. 

Blur Origin is working to be part of the first lunar lander craft on the moon, not just a later one as planned, due to SpaceX’s difficultly meeting its milestones. If only Mr. Musk took the lunar mission as seriously rather than spending his energy on right-wing politics and questionable AI projects.

Musk Madness: Tying SpaceX to xAI

Posted on by onespaceman2000
Credit: Image by StellarUniverse from Pixabay

It was German philosopher Arthur Schopenhauer who said:

If you put a spoonful of wine in a barrel full of sewage, you get sewage. If you put a spoonful of sewage in a barrel full of wine, you get… sewage.

As much as Elon Musk interferes in German politics, I am not sure whether he reads its philosophers. It is unlikely, or he would have reconsidered merging his xAI with SpaceX.

This comes as a time when Mr. Musk is facing more questions about his ties to the Epstein files, his company Tesla is dealing with a 46 percent drop in profits due to his political antics, and his AI business (already tied to the flaying Twitter/X) is suffering from bad press due to his Grok chat bot creating sexualized images of children. I guess that brings us full circle back to the Epstein files. Of course, this disastrous set of stories not even include the French raid of the Twitter/X offices this week.

As Mr. Musk now prepares an initial public offering of SpaceX stock, it is unclear why he would saddle a successful company with the weight of his questionable AI initiates. It appears he sees an opportunity to use SpaceX as his vehicle for data centers in space one day, in the same way SpaceX has made a bundle of money with its Starlink internet satellites. As we all know, creating those sexualized images uses a lot of power, so why not put the porn portals in space?

It would have been nice to have SpaceX outside of all of the Musk nonsense (not that Starlink has been perfect), but that does not seem to be the plan.

Just as our allies are learning that relying on American arms has put them in a bind, the US space industry is learning that relying on Musk’s SpaceX has put them in a similar bind.

It almost makes you want to move to Mars.

Space Stories: Russia Destroys Own Cosmonaut Launch Site, Cosmonaut Removed from ISS Crew, and Martian Drainage Systems (Not Canals)

Posted on by onespaceman2000
Credit: Image by WikiImages from Pixabay

Here are some recent space-related stories of interest.

—The Independent: “Russia Accidentally Destroys its Only Way of Sending Astronauts to Space“

Russia’s only crewed-mission launch site has suffered major damage following a rocket launch on Thursday. The Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakhstan will be unable to host launches until repairs are made, according to the space agency Roscosmos, marking the first time in decades that Russia has lost the ability to send people to space. The launch of the Soyuz MS-28 spacecraft was otherwise successful, with none of the crew members injured.

—United24 Media: “Russian Cosmonaut Allegedly Photographed Confidential SpaceX Docs, Removed From NASA Crew-12 Mission“

Russian cosmonaut Oleg Artemyev has been removed from the prime crew of SpaceX’s Crew-12 mission to the International Space Station and replaced by fellow Roscosmos cosmonaut Andrey Fedyaev after sources alleged he photographed confidential SpaceX materials in California in violation of US export control rules, according to The Insider on December 2. The outlet reported that Trishkin also said NASA did not want the controversy around Artemyev to become public, while Artemyev was removed from training at SpaceX’s Hawthorne California, facility last week after allegedly photographing SpaceX engines and other internal materials on his phone and taking them off-site.

—University of Texas “Scientists Map Mars’ Large River Drainage Systems for First Time“

A new study published in PNAS from researchers at The University of Texas at Austin is the first to define large river drainage systems on the red planet. They outlined 16 large-scale river basins where life would have been most likely to thrive on the neighboring planet. “We’ve known for a long time that there were rivers on Mars,” said co-author Timothy A. Goudge, an assistant professor in the Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences at the UT Jackson School of Geosciences. “But we really didn’t know the extent to which the rivers were organized in large drainage systems at the global scale.”

If at First You Don’t Succeed: Jared Isaacman is Really Back

Posted on by onespaceman2000
Image (Credit): Artist’s rendering of Blue Origin’s Blue Moon Mark 1, which is a single-launch, lunar cargo lander. (Blue Origin)

President Trump has had a change of heart on Jared Isaacman, his initial nominee for NASA administrator until he withdrew that nomination earlier this year.

Earlier today, the President posted the following:

Jared’s passion for Space, astronaut experience, and dedication to pushing the boundaries of exploration, unlocking the mysteries of the universe, and advancing the new space economy, make him ideally suited to lead NASA into a bold new era.

So what has changed in the last few months to make Mr. Isaacman “ideally suited” to lead NASA as compared to when he was determine unsuitable? I cannot think of anything other than the end of the President’s feud with Elon Musk. Of course, that was recently replaced with Elon Musk’s feud with acting NASA Administrator Sean Duffy, who proposed reopening competition for the first manned Moon landing this century due to delays with SpaceX’s Starship.

Will Mr. Isaacman save Musk’s Moon mission? He may calm some of the acrimony for the time being, but any new NASA administrator had better have a solid plan to get Americans back on the Moon before China does. Mr. Isaacman may be friends with Mr. Musk, but should he be confirmed he will head a weakened space agency that is struggling with a complex Moon mission that may be much less complex without the Starship refueling plans. In fact, Blue Origin just submitted a new Moon mission plan that drops this refueling altogether.

It is not impossible the winds will shift again, leaving Mr. Isaacman adrift once more. That is how it is in Washington these days. Fickle leadership leads to fickle decision-making and fickle planning.

The Chinese are not having these issues at the moment as they aim to be on the Moon by 2030.