When is the Next Starship Launch?

Posted on by onespaceman2000
Image (Credit): Artist’s rendering of SpaceX’s Starship HLS preparing for a Moon landing. (SpaceX)

Mr. Musk seems to move like a weather vane regarding where SpaceX is going next, but whether SpaceX is heading for the Moon or Mars it still needs a functioning Starship.

First the confusion. For all of Musk’s ongoing criticism of a Moon mission, it appears he is finally focusing on Artemis III. On Sunday, he tweeted:

For those unaware, SpaceX has already shifted focus to building a self-growing city on the Moon, as we can potentially achieve that in less than 10 years, whereas Mars would take 20+ years.

The mission of SpaceX remains the same: extend consciousness and life as we know it to the stars.

It is only possible to travel to Mars when the planets align every 26 months (six month trip time), whereas we can launch to the Moon every 10 days (2 day trip time). This means we can iterate much faster to complete a Moon city than a Mars city.

That said, SpaceX will also strive to build a Mars city and begin doing so in about 5 to 7 years, but the overriding priority is securing the future of civilization and the Moon is faster.

It seems that someone explained planetary alignment to him over the weekend, but that’s a point for another day.

So the target this week will be the Moon. But a crewed landing on the Moon depends on SpaceX’s Human Landing System (HLS) at the moment, which is where the Starship comes in. Or, more to the point, this is where a multitude of Starships come into play between the refueling in orbit as well and the HLS.

Given that SpaceX planned for 25 Starship launches in 2025 yet achieved only 5, we have an issue Houston (or should I say “Starbase”?).

All indications are that the first launch in 2026 will be early next month (based on one sentence from Musk on January 26th stating “Starship launch in six weeks”), following the last launch of October 13th. Five months between launches is not a very robust schedule given that the Starship not only needs to work but also needs to test the idea of fueling in space before landing a crew on the Moon in 2028.

So far the only parts of Artemis that have proven to work are the Space Launch System and Orion capsule, which are also the two most demonized components said to be substandard based on what the private sector can provide. However, waiting on SpaceX for a workable Moon model is becoming about as logical as waiting for Twitter to become profitable.

Remember, Musk was supposed to have a crew on Mars two years ago. As the Planetary Society noted in 2017:

SpaceX’s previous plan called for landing its first transport ship on Mars in 2022. The timeline Musk gave today was similar; two cargo landers would land on Mars in 2022, with four vehicles launching in 2024. Two of those 2024 ships would be crewed, meaning, in Musk’s timeline, humans could walk on Mars in just seven years.

It now seems like 50/50 that SpaceX can get a crew on the Moon before the Chinese. NASA may need the help of Blue Origin before it has a workable plan.

It may be time to ignore SpaceX’s promises and plan for some new players without tossing out the older technology just yet.

Space Tourism Ends for Now at Blue Origin

Posted on by onespaceman2000
Image (Credit): The 38th and last New Shepard crew for some time. The crew from left to right is Alain Fernandez, Dr. Linda Edwards, Dr. Laura Stiles, Tim Drexler, Alberto Gutiérrez, and Jim Hendren. (Blue Origin)

If you didn’t find your way into orbit yet, your chances to do so in the near future have dropped precipitously.

Blue Origin is ending its New Shepard rocket flights for tourists starting immediately. The pause will last for at least two years while the company focuses on the upcoming Artemis III lunar mission.

In a press release, the company stated:

Blue Origin today announced it will pause its New Shepard flights and shift resources to further accelerate development of the company’s human lunar capabilities. The decision reflects Blue Origin’s commitment to the nation’s goal of returning to the Moon and establishing a permanent, sustained lunar presence.  

New Shepard is the first reusable spaceflight system to vertically land and has flown 38 times and carried 98 humans above the Kármán line to date. New Shepard has launched more than 200 scientific and research payloads from students, academia, research organizations, and NASA. This consistent and reliable performance, combined with an exceptional customer experience, has resulted in a multi-year customer backlog. 

Blur Origin is working to be part of the first lunar lander craft on the moon, not just a later one as planned, due to SpaceX’s difficultly meeting its milestones. If only Mr. Musk took the lunar mission as seriously rather than spending his energy on right-wing politics and questionable AI projects.

Second Launch by German Rocket Company Happens Soon

Posted on by onespaceman2000
Credit: Isar Aerospace.

You may remember the name Isar Aerospace from its attempt last year to launch a rocket from the Andoya Space Centre in Norway. It was the first test of the German company’s Spectrum two-stage rocket, and it lasted for less than a minute into launch. That’s how these tests often go.

The second launch, labeled “Onward and Upward,” is scheduled to happen shortly. While it was initially scheduled for January 21st, it has been delayed until March 19th due to pressurization valve issues.

This second time the Germans seem a little more confident given that the launch will include payloads – five CubeSats and one experiment. The company is also securing more space in Munich, Germany, Sweden (Esrange Space Center) and French Guyana (Guiana Space Centre).

When Dr. Markus Söder, Minister President of Bavaria, visited the Isar Aerospace facility last year, he stated:

The success story of our space program continues – and Isar Aerospace is playing a decisive role in writing it. …We are Germany’s Space Valley: Europe’s largest faculty for aerospace is being established at the Technical University of Munich – and 550 companies and 65,000 employees now work in this sector in Bavaria. The future looks bright. With the Bavarian high-tech agenda, we are investing a total of six billion euros in research and science. Live long and prosper, Isar Aerospace!”

Germany is no stranger to rocketry, which benefited the US in no small degree following WWII. With all of this energy directed towards the space industry, Germany and Europe become stronger players in this area and be somewhat less reliant on the US for future payloads.

Musk Madness: Tying SpaceX to xAI

Posted on by onespaceman2000
Credit: Image by StellarUniverse from Pixabay

It was German philosopher Arthur Schopenhauer who said:

If you put a spoonful of wine in a barrel full of sewage, you get sewage. If you put a spoonful of sewage in a barrel full of wine, you get… sewage.

As much as Elon Musk interferes in German politics, I am not sure whether he reads its philosophers. It is unlikely, or he would have reconsidered merging his xAI with SpaceX.

This comes as a time when Mr. Musk is facing more questions about his ties to the Epstein files, his company Tesla is dealing with a 46 percent drop in profits due to his political antics, and his AI business (already tied to the flaying Twitter/X) is suffering from bad press due to his Grok chat bot creating sexualized images of children. I guess that brings us full circle back to the Epstein files. Of course, this disastrous set of stories not even include the French raid of the Twitter/X offices this week.

As Mr. Musk now prepares an initial public offering of SpaceX stock, it is unclear why he would saddle a successful company with the weight of his questionable AI initiates. It appears he sees an opportunity to use SpaceX as his vehicle for data centers in space one day, in the same way SpaceX has made a bundle of money with its Starlink internet satellites. As we all know, creating those sexualized images uses a lot of power, so why not put the porn portals in space?

It would have been nice to have SpaceX outside of all of the Musk nonsense (not that Starlink has been perfect), but that does not seem to be the plan.

Just as our allies are learning that relying on American arms has put them in a bind, the US space industry is learning that relying on Musk’s SpaceX has put them in a similar bind.

It almost makes you want to move to Mars.

Executive Order to Ensure American Space Superiority

Posted on by onespaceman2000
Image (Credit): Apollo Astronaut James B. Irwin, lunar module pilot, works at the Lunar Roving Vehicle during the first Apollo 15 lunar surface extravehicular activity (EVA) at the Hadley-Apennine landing site. (NASA)

Just as Jared Isaacman, NASA’s new Administrator, started to settle into his new post, the White House updated the nation’s space priorities.

A new executive order on Thursday, titled “Ensuring American Space Superiority,” provides clear goals for NASA, which includes:

  • Returning to the Moon by 2028, and the establishment of initial elements of a permanent lunar outpost by 2030;
  • Deploying of nuclear reactors on the Moon and in orbit, including a lunar surface reactor ready for launch by 2030; and
  • Spurring private sector innovation and investment by upgrading launch infrastructure and developing a commercial pathway to replace the International Space Station by 2030.

Adding nuclear reactors as its own goal seems a little odd since it could simply be wrapped into the first goal related to a permanent lunar outpost, but maybe this is just to kick regolith into the eyes of the Chinese who announced a similar intention.

Returning to the Moon by 2028 will certainly be a challenge, but luckily Administrator Isaacman is showing no favorites when it comes to meeting this goal. This week he made this statement about plans to return to the Moon:

I don’t think it was lost on either vendor that whichever lander was available first to ensure that America achieves its strategic objectives on the moon is the one we were going to go with.

His friend Elon Musk was certainly listening, but so far we have not heard him say that the new NASA Administrator has a 2 digit IQ. Of course, it has only been a few days, though the honeymoon is likely to be very short.