Image (Credit): China’s Long March 10 rocket. (South China Morning Post)
Now that Artemis II is well underway as NASA prepares for an eventual crewed landing on the Moon, one might ask where the Chinese are in their own race for the Moon.
The answer is that the Chinese are moving along with their program as well, as noted in a recent Ars Technica article that highlighted China’s test in February of its new reusable booster and crew capsule. The test of the Long March 10 rocket and Mengzhou spacecraft (“dream vessel”) was considered a success, moving China closer to its own lunar mission. The next test will be to put the Mengzhou spacecraft into orbit later this year.
At the same time, the Chinese are testing a lunar lander to bring the taikonauts to the lunar surface.The lunar lander is called Lanyue, which means “embrace the moon.”
China is still aiming for a crewed landing on the Moon before 2030, followed by an International Lunar Research Station by 2035. The country is also planning to have a station orbiting the Moon by 2045, similar to the Gateway that NASA has decided to drop from its plans for now. The Chinese orbiting station would assist with scientific work on the Moon as well as a future trip to Mars.
Neither NASA nor China have the luxury of any detours over the next few years as each plans to be the first to return to the surface of the Moon. The current Artemis II mission puts the US in a good position to meet its own goal to land on the Moon before China assuming everything goes as planned with the mission and any technical issues can be easily resolved.
Image (Credit): NASA’s Artemis II mission lifting off from Launch Complex 39B at NASA’s Kennedy Space Center in Florida on Wednesday, April 1, 2026. (NASA/Joel Kowsky)
The second phase of our return to the Moon, Artemis II, is underway after a successful launch from the Kennedy Space Center earlier today. Three American astronauts as well as one Canadian astronaut will circle the Moon in a 10-day mission to iron out any bugs in the Orion spacecraft.
Here is a day-by-day schedule for the 10-day mission, with a graphic version below (provided on the Planetary Society’s website):
Day 1: Over 24 hours in Earth orbit, the astronauts perform a proximity operations demo with the ICPS and make sure various spacecraft systems are working (water, toilet, carbon dioxide removal, communications). The crew sleeps in two four-hour periods.
Day 2: Orion engines fire for several minutes, accelerating the spacecraft to escape velocity and sending the crew toward the Moon on their free-return trajectory. The crew also works out on a flywheel and do video calls with people on the ground.
Days 3-5: Orion performs three trajectory corrections to fine-tune its approach to the Moon. The crew tests the medical kit and performs a CPR demo. On day 5, they test their spacesuits.
Day 6: The crew flies by the Moon, coming within 6,400-9,600 kilometers (4,000-6,000 miles) of its far side. Their maximum distance from Earth is between 370,000-450,000 kilometers (230,000-280,000 miles), depending on their launch date. This may exceed the current human record set by Apollo 13. The crew takes photographs and videos of the Moon’s far side.
Days 7-9: Orion performs three trajectory corrections to fine-tune its return to Earth. On day 7, the crew rests off-duty, and on day 8, the crew demonstrates the construction of a radiation shelter construction demo and performs manual piloting tests.
Day 10: The crew dons spacesuits and compression garments to prepare for reentry. About 122,000 meters (400,000 feet) above Earth, Orion’s service module separates from the crew module, and Orion reenters Earth’s atmosphere at 40,000 kilometers per hour (25,000 miles per hour). Two drogue parachutes slow Orion to roughly 480 kilometers per hour (300 miles per hour). Then, three pilot parachutes, followed by three main parachutes, slow the capsule to 27 kilometers per hour (17 miles per hour). Artemis II splashes down off the coast of San Diego, California.
If you want to track the mission in real time, you can visit this NASA site.
NASA’s Apollo moonshots are a tough act to follow, even after all this time. As four astronauts get set to blast off on humanity’s first trip to the moon in more than half a century, comparisons between Apollo and NASA’s new Artemis program are inevitable. The world’s first lunar visitors orbited the moon on Apollo 8. The Artemis II crew will play it safe and zip around the moon in an out-and-back slingshot. Another key difference: Artemis reflects more of society, with a woman, person of color and Canadian rocketing away.
The hazards that the Artemis II crew must navigate during their 10-day flight are plentiful, starting from the second they launch aboard the most powerful rocket to ever carry humans and continuing all the way through their return to Earth nestled inside the Orion capsule. Many threats the crew will face are obvious, but not all of them are. Take, for example, radiation, which with moderate exposures can increase an astronaut’s long-term risk of cancer and with heavy doses can cause acute sickness. The Artemis II crew will be the first humans in decades to travel beyond low-Earth orbit, fully discarding the protection of Earth’s magnetic field. And while most aspects of cosmic radiation are straightforward to plan for, the outlier is space weather.
Today, potential conflict zones in space are limited to a region between low-Earth orbit and geosynchronous orbit, from a few hundred miles altitude up to 22,000 miles. The Space Force is in the final stages of developing a roadmap for the next 15 years, identifying where the service needs to grow and evolve to respond to changing threats and priorities. The document hasn’t been released publicly, but Pentagon officials have said it will address the possibility of the the Moon or cislunar space, the region of space around the Moon, becoming a theater for military operations.
Image (Credit): An astronaut’s bootprint in the lunar soil from the Apollo 11 mission.(NASA)
Multiple Choice: Which statement below is NOT TRUE about the Moon?
A. Lunar dust smells like a chemical solvent. B. Some craters on the Moon are colder than the surface of Pluto. C. The Moon has an atmosphere. D. The Moon orbits the Sun rather than the Earth.
Image (Credit): NASA’s February 2026 somewhat confusing graphic that seems to indicate we will either be on the Moon by 2028 or simply orbiting around the Moon and thinking about it for years to come. (NASA)
So what is the latest? Let’s start with the Moon mission in today’s post. According to a new set of initiatives released this week, the idea of a permanently crewed lunar base, or even a base that can be used for two months at a time, is moving further into the future. The whole theme appears to be “ignition,” but not “arrival,” mind you.
Here are the new plans:
Phase One: Build, Test, Learn: NASA shifts from bespoke, infrequent missions to a repeatable, modular approach. Through CLPS (Commercial Lunar Payload Services) deliveries and the LTV (Lunar Terrain Vehicle) program, the agency will increase the tempo of lunar activity, sending rovers, instruments, and technology demonstrations that advance mobility, power generation (including radioisotope heater units and radioisotope thermoelectric generators), communications, navigation, surface operations, and a wide range of scientific investigations.
Phase Two: Establish Early Infrastructure: With lessons from early missions in hand, NASA moves toward semi‑habitable infrastructure and regular logistics. This phase supports recurring astronaut operations on the surface and incorporates major international contributions, including JAXA’s (Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency) pressurized rover, and potentially other partner scientific payloads, rovers, and infrastructure/transportation capabilities.
Phase Three: Enable Long‑Duration Human Presence: As cargo‑capable human landing systems (HLS) come online, NASA will deliver heavier infrastructure needed for a continuous human foothold on the Moon, marking the transition from periodic expeditions to a permanent lunar base. This will include ASI’s (Italian Space Agency) Multi-purpose Habitats (MPH), CSA’s (Canadian Space Agency) Lunar Utility Vehicle, and opportunities for additional contributions in habitation, surface
Phase One makes sense – let’s keep trying. You may remember the various commercial lunar missions in recent years that have faced severe issues on or around the Moon. For instance, we had:
The Peregrine Mission One mission never made it to the Moon due to a propellant leak, so it just floated off into space.
The Odysseus lunar landertipped over upon landing on the lunar surface, preventing it from completing its mission.
What worries me is that the past could be a predictor for the future. Other than Blue Ghost, NASA and the commercial sector have little to brag about. If this continues, how long do we wait? Is the commercial sector even ready for this new work and expected pace?
Phase Two is talking about agreements with Japan at a time that NASA’s credibility with any of its partnerships is questionable given the attitude in the White House. For instance, since 2022 Japan has been a partner in the Lunar Gateway project that the White House tried to kill last year and NASA has now paused (or more likely killed) this week. Such actions do not build confidence between the two space programs, nor the space programs of other nations also assisting with the Lunar Gateway. Also, what does it mean to live in semi‑habitable infrastructure? That is a semi-scary term. Do they mean “semi-permanent” infrastructure?
Phase Three assumes the successful creation of a HLS by SpaceX and Blue Origin, but the companies do not have a lot of time to create simpler landing craft for Artemis III, iron out their bugs, and maybe even completely scrap their current multiple rocket refueling design. Moreover, these simpler models are expected to expand into the full HLS models. So what does that mean in terms of getting actual astronauts on the Moon for Artemis IV and cargo thereafter?
NASA notes that the simpler landing systems will not only need to be created for the Artemis III low Earth orbit test in 2027, but then those companies have to also prove that they can safely land whatever they create on the lunar surface without a crew before Artemis IV in early 2028. We are asking this of two companies that have never done anything like this. SpaceX is still playing with its Starship after all of his promises that it would be much further ahead by now. SpaceX has not even had a launch test in the past six months. Again, is it any surprise if the public’s confidence is waning?
Finally, a new timeline interlaced with the Artemis timeline would be nice. My fear is that all of this complexity and busy work means we will be arriving on the Moon after the Chinese have set up camp. Having some clear dates aligned with the phases above would help to alleviate this concern.
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