Space Stories: Rubin Observatory Data Alerts, Upcoming Total Lunar Eclipse, and Exoplanet Astronomer Murdered

Posted on by onespaceman2000
Image (Credit): The Rubin Observatory. (Rubin Obs./NSF/AURA)

Here are some recent space-related stories of interest.

—GeekWire: “Rubin Observatory Sends Out Thousands of Data Alerts with an Assist from Seattle Astronomers“

An astronomical alert system developed at the University of Washington started off with a bang this week, sending out 800,000 notifications about moving asteroids, exploding stars and other celestial changes detected by the Vera C. Rubin Observatory in Chile. Tuesday night’s surge was just the first wave of alerts. Eventually, the Alert Production Pipeline is expected to produce up to 7 million alerts per night. Astronomers around the globe will use the system to sift through the torrent of data, zeroing in on events ranging from newly detected asteroids to supernovas, variable stars and active galactic nuclei.

—Sky&Telescope: “Get Ready for the March 3, 2026, Predawn Total Lunar Eclipse“

On Tuesday, March 3rd, the full Moon glides through the darkest portion of Earth’s shadow, called the umbra, to create a dramatic total lunar eclipse. In the Western Hemisphere, the event occurs in the hours before dawn, while across Asia it happens during the evening. During the eclipse, Earth’s shadow is seen gradually edging across the face of the full Moon until the entire lunar disk glows deep orange or red. Then the sequence of events unfolds in reverse order, until the shadow leaves the lunar disk completely and the Moon returns to full brilliance.

—Futurism: “Astronomer Who Discovered Water on Distant Planet Murdered Outside Home“

A renowned Caltech astronomer who studied distant exoplanets was shot and killed outside his home in a rural area near Los Angeles, the LA Times reported…Among his most notable contributions to the field was leading research published in 2007 that, for the first time, captured enough light from distant exoplanets to identify the molecules in their atmospheres…and soon made the “monumental” discovery of detecting signs of water on another planet.

Space Quote: New Artemis Mission Added Before Moon Landing

Posted on by onespaceman2000

“You don’t go from one uncrewed launch of SLS [Artemis I], wait three years, go around the Moon [Artemis II], wait three years and land on it…I would certainly much rather have the astronauts testing out the integrated systems of the lander and Orion in low-Earth orbit than on the Moon.”

-Statement by NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman regarding the addition of one more Artemis mission – let’s call it Artemis III-A – to test out the lunar lander before the crew actually heads to the Moon – or Artemis III-B. The Moon landing itself is still planned for 2028, but we know how these dates continue to slip. SpaceX with its Starship issues is not making it any easier. Just like SpaceX saved the Starliner crew from a problem Boeing capsule, Blue Origin may eventually save the Artemis astronauts from a problem SpaceX rocket.

Note: Actually, I think it will just be an uncrewed Artemis III mission followed by the first Moon landing as Artemis IV, but for some reason I think we will be adding even more Roman numerals before we hit the Moon. Maybe we will get to X, Musk’s favorite letter, before we approach the Moon.

Now We Know the Rest of the Story about that ISS Medical Emergency

Posted on by onespaceman2000
Image (Credit): An earlier photo of NASA astronaut Edward Michael “Mike” Fincke. (European Space Agency)

While NASA had kept it quiet for a while, we now know that the medical evacuation of Crew-11 from the International Space Station (ISS) last month related to NASA astronaut Mike Fincke (age 58).

While we still do not know the underlying medical condition, and maybe never will, it appears Fincke is still recovering given that he has stated:

I’m doing very well and continuing standard post-flight reconditioning at NASA’s Johnson Space Center in Houston. Spaceflight is an incredible privilege, and sometimes it reminds us just how human we are…Thank you all for your support.

It is good that he reminds us of human frailty as we send manned spacecraft to the Moon again, while also contemplating the daunting task of sending humans to Mars.

We were reminded of human frailty again this past weekend when a US Navy sub had to resurface near Greenland because of crew member’s medical condition. A submarine submerged for months at a time is probably as close as you will get to the conditions and isolation of a spacecraft going to Mars.

Note: An interesting fact about Mike Fincke is that he appeared as a guest star on the last episode of Star Trek: Enterprise in 2025. He played the part of Lt. M. Fincke.

Americans May Be a Bit Too Optimistic About Space Travel

Posted on by onespaceman2000

The latest Harper’s Index from Harper’s magazine had a few interesting statistics related to space travel and alien encounters (something discussed in Friday’s post).

Here are the two stastistics:

  • Portion of Americans in 1998 who believed that space travel would be common for ordinary Americans by 2025:  3/10
  • Portion of Americans in 1998 who believed that humans would make contact with extraterrestrial life by 2025:  1/4

Both come from a Gallup poll conducted back in 1998. You can read more about the various survey results in this Gallup story.

Given that the Artemis II mission is still struggling to get to the Moon, and the only new life we seem to have encountered was created in a laboratory by OpenAI and others, I would say we are far from this mark. However, Americans were a little better at predicting some of the social trends, including the 69 percent who expected the country would elect a Black president by 2025.

It is also good that some of the predictions were off, particularly those related to disease, disaster, and war (shown below). Then again, the respondents (76 percent) who predicted the emergence of a deadly new disease were spot on regarding COVID.

When is the Next Starship Launch?

Posted on by onespaceman2000
Image (Credit): Artist’s rendering of SpaceX’s Starship HLS preparing for a Moon landing. (SpaceX)

Mr. Musk seems to move like a weather vane regarding where SpaceX is going next, but whether SpaceX is heading for the Moon or Mars it still needs a functioning Starship.

First the confusion. For all of Musk’s ongoing criticism of a Moon mission, it appears he is finally focusing on Artemis III. On Sunday, he tweeted:

For those unaware, SpaceX has already shifted focus to building a self-growing city on the Moon, as we can potentially achieve that in less than 10 years, whereas Mars would take 20+ years.

The mission of SpaceX remains the same: extend consciousness and life as we know it to the stars.

It is only possible to travel to Mars when the planets align every 26 months (six month trip time), whereas we can launch to the Moon every 10 days (2 day trip time). This means we can iterate much faster to complete a Moon city than a Mars city.

That said, SpaceX will also strive to build a Mars city and begin doing so in about 5 to 7 years, but the overriding priority is securing the future of civilization and the Moon is faster.

It seems that someone explained planetary alignment to him over the weekend, but that’s a point for another day.

So the target this week will be the Moon. But a crewed landing on the Moon depends on SpaceX’s Human Landing System (HLS) at the moment, which is where the Starship comes in. Or, more to the point, this is where a multitude of Starships come into play between the refueling in orbit as well and the HLS.

Given that SpaceX planned for 25 Starship launches in 2025 yet achieved only 5, we have an issue Houston (or should I say “Starbase”?).

All indications are that the first launch in 2026 will be early next month (based on one sentence from Musk on January 26th stating “Starship launch in six weeks”), following the last launch of October 13th. Five months between launches is not a very robust schedule given that the Starship not only needs to work but also needs to test the idea of fueling in space before landing a crew on the Moon in 2028.

So far the only parts of Artemis that have proven to work are the Space Launch System and Orion capsule, which are also the two most demonized components said to be substandard based on what the private sector can provide. However, waiting on SpaceX for a workable Moon model is becoming about as logical as waiting for Twitter to become profitable.

Remember, Musk was supposed to have a crew on Mars two years ago. As the Planetary Society noted in 2017:

SpaceX’s previous plan called for landing its first transport ship on Mars in 2022. The timeline Musk gave today was similar; two cargo landers would land on Mars in 2022, with four vehicles launching in 2024. Two of those 2024 ships would be crewed, meaning, in Musk’s timeline, humans could walk on Mars in just seven years.

It now seems like 50/50 that SpaceX can get a crew on the Moon before the Chinese. NASA may need the help of Blue Origin before it has a workable plan.

It may be time to ignore SpaceX’s promises and plan for some new players without tossing out the older technology just yet.