Study Findings: Verification of the Outer Space Treaty with Cosmic Protons

Posted on by onespaceman2000
Credit: Image by PIRO 4D from Pixabay.

Nature abstract of study findings:

The Outer Space Treaty (OST) was opened to signatures in 1967 and, since then, 117 countries, including China, the USA and Russia, have become part of it. Among other stipulations, the treaty bans the placement of nuclear weapons in outer space. Recently, the US government has raised worries that Russia is testing nuclear-armed anti-satellite weapon (ASAT) components, with the possibility that it will place a nuclear weapon in space. Such a device, if detonated, would destroy most of the satellites in the low Earth orbit. This danger is compounded by the lack of a verification mechanism for the OST. No methodologies of verification have been proposed in the open peer-reviewed literature. Here a concept and feasibility study is presented for verifying a satellite’s compliance to the OST by observing the neutrons induced by spallation from the approximately GeV protons in the inner Van Allen radiation belts. The calculations show that a 9U-CubeSat-sized detection platform can identify a thermonuclear weapon from a distance of 4 km in approximately one week of observation. This conceptual study will stimulate and inform future research and development of verification platforms for the OST.

Citation: Danagoulian, A. Verification of the Outer Space Treaty with cosmic protons. Nature, 655, 585–590 (2026).

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10783-2

Study-related stories:

Nuclear Newswire – “MIT Professor Develops Method to Verify Compliance with Outer Space Treaty”

Science News – “Nature Study Identifies a New Way to Spot Nuclear Weapons in Orbit”

Discover Magazine – “Proposed Satellite Detector Could Identify Nuclear Weapons in Orbit With More Than 99 Percent Confidence”

A Hopeful Study on Solar Flares

Posted on by onespaceman2000
Image (Credit): A graphic showing how space weather can impact eveyday technology. (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)

Now that we know solar flares can be worse than anticipated (per the study cited in the prior post), let me add some good news about another study that may have a solution.

The recent study, Terrestrial Space Weather Protection Through Human-Produced Mass-Loading, has a plain language summary, fortunately, that explains one possible solution to the damaging effects of solar flares:

The study presents a new way to protect Earth from harmful space weather caused by storms from the sun that can disrupt technology and power grids. The study shows humans can actively reduce the impact by releasing neutral gas from orbiting satellites. Once released, this gas turns into plasma and drifts to the edge of Earth’s magnetic field where it softens the effects of solar storms. Computer simulations show this method could reduce the strength of a major solar storm by more than half, potentially saving lives and technology. The proposed approach uses existing technology and materials, making it a practical future defense against space weather risks.

What we really have here is a draw, with the first study saying the impact from solar flares may be twice as bad as previously thought and the second study saying the impact can be cut in half. So we are back to where we started assuming we launch a new batch of satellites.

Maybe future studies will bring us closer to even better defense mechanisms, but it is good to know that new solutions are being proposed.

Study Findings: Regression to the Mean Can Explain Saturation of Geomagnetic Storms

Posted on by onespaceman2000
Image (Credit): A May 2024 image of a solar flare captured by NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). (NASA SDO)

Nature abstract of study findings:

Extreme space weather events on Earth occur during intervals of strong solar wind driving. The solar wind drives plasma convection and currents in the near-Earth space environment. For low values of the driver, the Earth’s response is linear, estimated by parameters such as the polar cap index based on ground magnetometer activity. Curiously, for extreme solar wind driving, the Earth’s response appears not to increase beyond a saturation limit. Theorists have advanced a host of explanations for this saturation effect, but there is no consensus. Here we demonstrate that this saturation is a manifestation of the regression to the mean effect arising from random uncertainty in the timing and magnitude of solar wind measurements. Our results reveal that data analysis underpinning the saturation theories is nonlinearly biased, thereby challenging the validity of the theories. Correcting for the uncertainties reveals that the Earth’s response to solar wind driving is linear throughout, and that the impact of extreme geomagnetic storms can be twice as large as previously thought. We show that regression to the mean is a fundamental property of the relationship between measurement and the truth, where the truth corresponding to the measurement is closer to the mean. This effect is particularly pronounced for uncertain measurements of extreme values and is likely to manifest across various fields, from extreme climate studies to chronic medical pain.

Citation: Sivadas, N., Sibeck, D., Subramanyan, V. et al. Regression to the mean can explain saturation of geomagnetic storms. Nature 655, 1143–1147 (2026).

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10757-4

Study-related stories:

Wired – “An Extreme Solar Storm May Be Even More Devastating Than Previously Imagined”

SciTechDaily – “Earth May Be Twice As Vulnerable to Extreme Solar Storms As Scientists Thought”

NASA – “New NASA Study Says Possibly No Limit to Solar Storm Effects”

Study Findings: The Barnard’s Star Planetary System: Stability, Composition, and Evolution of Four Sub-Earth Exoplanets

Posted on by onespaceman2000
Credit: NASA Photojournal

Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society abstract of study findings:

Barnard’s Star is the nearest single star to the Sun (1.8 pc⁠⁠), and hosts four recently discovered planets. The star also has well-characterized stellar abundances of important rock-forming elements, including Fe, Mg, and Si. For refractory elements like these, the planets have likely inherited similar bulk elemental abundance ratios to the star, facilitating modelling of their interior structures. We present here an analysis of the Barnard’s Star planetary system on several fronts. We perform a detailed stability analysis of the system, ascertaining that all four planets likely have masses between 0.19 and 0.84 M⁠, and are likely tidally locked, whereas a 4:3 mean-motion resonance chain for the inner three planets cannot be ruled out. Using atmospheric evolution models, we show that the prospect of extant primary atmospheres is highly unlikely on any of the planets. Barnard’s Star’s abnormally high Mg/Si ratio and low Th/Mg ratio imply planetary mantles which (a) are rich in (Mg,Fe)O ferropericlase; (b) have less than half the water capacity as Earth; (c) generate about half of the radiogenic heating as Earth; and (d) are cool and unlikely to have outgassed secondary atmospheres. Our analysis of this system presents an accessible set of first steps for the study of other nearby exoplanetary systems, as well as sub-Earth planets which will be increasingly discovered over the coming years.

Citation: Byrne, X., Guimond, C.M., Bonsor, A., et al. The Barnard’s Star planetary system: stability, composition, and evolution of four sub-Earth exoplanet. Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, Volume 550, Issue 2 (2026).

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/mnras/stag1207

Study-related stories:

University of Cambridge – “Astronomers Find Nearby Planets To Be Small, Strange, and Utterly Uninhabitable”

Sci.News – “Barnard’s Star Planetary System May Be Filled with Water-Poor Rocky Worlds”

Daily Galaxy – “Scientists Studied a Nearby Star and Found Four Planets That Look Nothing Like Earth”

Study Findings: Accurate Distances of the Galactic Spiral Arms from Dust-scattered X-ray Emission of Gamma-ray Bursts

Posted on by onespaceman2000
Image (Credit): An artist’s rendering of the Milky Way Galaxy illustrating the results of the recent study discussed below. The position of our Sun is also provided in the image.(ESA/Gaia/DPAC, Stefan Payne-Wardenaar, ESA/XMM-Newton and NASA/Chandra)

Astronomy & Astrophysics abstract of study findings:

The details of the spiral structure of the Milky Way are still debated due to the large uncertainties in the distance estimates obtained through the most common tracers. However, X-ray dust scattering rings produced by short extragalactic X-ray transients provide a direct method to measure the 3D distribution of interstellar clouds up to the edges of our Galaxy with a precision of a few percent. We report on an analysis of all the available XMM-Newton and Chandra follow-up observations of three low-latitude gamma-ray bursts: GRB 031203 (l ≃ 255°, b ≃ −5°), GRB 160623A (l ≃ 84°, b ≃ −3°), and GRB 221009A (l ≃ 53°, b ≃ 4°). The previous detection of X-ray rings in these observations, produced by dust clouds located beyond 5 kpc, can be associated with dust in the Perseus, Outer, and Outer Scutum-Centaurus arms, thus providing direct distance measurements to these structures along three distinct lines of sight. We identify two additional rings in the direction of GRB 160623A produced by dusty clouds at 6.91  ±  0.06 kpc and 9.9  ±  0.6 kpc, and we confirm – through a second XMM-Newton observation – the presence of one cloud at 9.7  ±  0.4 kpc toward GRB 031203. We also accurately measured the distance of dusty clouds up to 19.0  ±  0.2 kpc based on the analysis of one Chandra and four XMM-Newton observations of GRB 221009A. The small statistical and systematic uncertainties of these measurements place tight constraints on the geometry of the outer Milky Way and reveal significant deviations from current models, which critically depend on spectroscopy-based Galactic rotation curves at large distances.

Citation: Vaia, B., Fornasiero, I., Tiengo, A. et al. Accurate distances of the Galactic spiral arms from dust-scattered X-ray emission of gamma-ray bursts. A&A (2026).

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1051/0004-6361/202557431

Study-related stories:

Live Science – “’Astronomers Have To Revise Estimates’: The Milky Way May Be Larger, Heavier and More Lopsided Than We Realized”

Earth Sky – “The Milky Way’s Arms Might Not Look As We Thought”

European Space Agency – “XMM-Newton Helps Revise Distance to Outer Spiral Arms”