Giving Everything to SpaceX is Risky? Who Knew?

Posted on by onespaceman2000
Credit: Image by David Stephanus from Pixabay.

According to the Washington Post, the leaders at NASA and the Department of Defense (DOD) have finally figured out that Mr. Musk is a potential threat to our space program and national security. Now where did they get that idea?

The newspaper stated:

NASA and Pentagon officials moved swiftly this past week to urge competitors to Elon Musk’s SpaceX to more quickly develop alternative rockets and spacecraft after President Donald Trump threatened to cancel Space X’s contracts and Musk’s defiant response.

Why did it take so long? And maybe instead of nagging SpaceX’s competitors, NASA and the DOD need to do more.

Boeing’s Starliner may need some propping up at the moment as an alternative to getting humans to the International Space Station (ISS), and other parties that can assist with the ISS and military satellite launches may need help as well.

Such careful planning should have been done long ago. Compromising NASA is one thing, but putting our nation’s defense in the hands of one unreliable man was foolish from the start. David killed the Goliath represented by the large aerospace companies, but now David has gone mad. Great plan, everyone.

It may be time to consider nationalizing SpaceX if it become an Achilles heel to our nation, particularly if Mr. Musk decides to take all of his marbles and go home (or simply loses all of his marbles).

This reminds me of Russia where President Putin put so much power into the hands of one of his warlords only to see that warlord turn his weapons on Moscow.

I expect things will settle down, but the risk remains. It is time for NASA and DOD to make some clear plans to expand the procurement base and rapidly fund alternatives to SpaceX.

As far as the future of NASA, which is the focus of this website, this is another wrench in the machinery. The White House budget already guts much of NASA’s programs, leaving most of the focus on Artemis, which needs a SpaceX Human Landing System, and Mars, which has been pushed to the front of the line only because of Musk’s influence at the White House.

So now what?

It seems Mr. Musk is not the only party undergoing a rapid unscheduled disassembly.

The Ninth Starship Test Launch Had a Few Problems

Posted on by onespaceman2000
Image (Credit): Side-by-side illustrations of the SpaceX Starship lunar lander and the Blue Origin Blue Moon lunar lander. (SpaceX/Blue Origin)

Elon Musk may be in a rush to get to Mars, if only to escape all of the chaos he is causing here on Earth, but he is going nowhere fast with his Starship. Today’s ninth test launch of the rocket ended with the explosion of its first-stage booster as well as the rocket itself during re-entry. While this is better than the last two launches, it still demonstrates that the rocket has a ways to go before it can be used for Moon missions, leaving aside any talk about Mars.

SpaceX loves to play with language (particularly when regulators are around), so it called this a “rapid unscheduled disassembly” once again. That said, the humor is getting thin.

Mr. Musk said he is back to his jobs at Tesla and SpaceX, so let’s hope he can get a handle on this rocket. I don’t really care about the cars – Tesla has already been superseded by other car companies – but SpaceX is important to the US space industry.

It is also time for Mr. Musk to stop over-promising on everything (though I am glad he was dead wrong about DOGE savings). The focus needs to be the Moon. Forget Mars for now.

By the way, DOGE has also done damage to future Mars missions by cutting funding and staffing at the Astrogeology Science Center in Flagstaff, Arizona. The Center would be critical to finding a safe landing site on Mars for one of Musk’s rockets.

You don’t poke out your eyes and then hope to make progress, but that is what is happening these days.

Note: It seems the term “rapid unscheduled disassembly” precedes Mr. Musk, as this link explains.

Space Stories: Even More Space Tourists, Upcoming Asteroid Encounter, and Copernicus Had Help

Posted on by onespaceman2000
Image (Credit): New Shepard’s NS-31 Mission crew. (Blue Origin)

Here are some recent stories of interest.

—ABC News: “Blue Origin Mission with All-female Crew, Including Katy Perry, Completes Space Trip“

Blue Origin’s all-female crew, which included pop star Katy Perry, completed their trip into space Monday morning. The flight lasted around 11 minutes and traveled more than 60 miles above Earth, according to Blue Origin, passing the Kármán line, which at 62 miles above sea level is considered to be the boundary between Earth’s atmosphere and outer space. Along with Perry, the crew included Blue Origin owner Jeff Bezos’ journalist fiancée, Lauren Sanchez, who is also a helicopter pilot.

—NASA: “NASA’s Lucy Spacecraft Prepares Second Asteroid Encounter“

NASA’s Lucy spacecraft is 6 days and less than 50 million miles (80 million km) away from its second close encounter with an asteroid; this time, the small main belt asteroid Donaldjohanson. This upcoming event represents a comprehensive “dress rehearsal” for Lucy’s main mission over the next decade: the exploration of multiple Trojan asteroids that share Jupiter’s orbit around the Sun.

—University of Sharjah: “Copernicus May Have Leaned on Ancient Muslim Astronomer in Developing his Cosmological System“

New research has revealed that the cosmological model developed by Nicolaus Copernicus, the renowned European Renaissance polymath, bears striking resemblance to the one designed by an Arab Muslim astronomer nearly two centuries earlier. The research conducted at the University of Sharjah is a comparative and analytical study which examines in parallel the writings of Copernicus in correlation with the works of the 14th century Muslim astronomer Ibn al-Shatir.

The Internet Satellite Race Continues, Almost

Posted on by onespaceman2000

Amazon hopes to challenge SpaceX’s Starlink system, but not just yet.

The launch planned for earlier this week place 27 internet satellites into orbit as part of Amazon’s Project Kuiper was scrubbed at the last minute. The United Launch Alliance (ULA) launch, scheduled for last Wednesday, was delayed due to bad weather.

If all goes according to plan, Project Kuiper will have about 1,600 satellites in orbit by the middle of next year. That would mean about 80 launches over that period, which seems somewhat unlikely given ongoing delays. In addition to ULA launches, Amazon is booking launches with Arianespace, Blue Origin, and SpaceX. When the project is complete, about 3,200 Kuiper internet satellites will be in orbit.

The Kuiper satellites will compete head-to-head with SpaceX’s Starlink (with its goal of 42,000 satellites) and China’s SpaceSail (with its goal of 15,000 satellites).

A new launch date for the first launch of the Kuiper internet satellites has not been announced yet.

Update: I forgot to mention another competitor – Eutelsat’s Oneweb in the European Union, which already has about 650 Internet satellites in Low Earth Orbit.

Second Update: This story, “Telecommunications Satellites and Space Exploration,” has a nice summary about how we arrived at the current moment with our satellite technology as well as what the future may hold.

Today’s NASA Nominee Hearing

Posted on by onespaceman2000

It appears Mr. Isaacman will become the next NASA Administrator based on his careful answering of questions at his nomination hearing, but there was some weakness in his support for a Moon mission in both his prepared testimony as well as his answers to later questions.

In his prepared statement, Mr. Isaacman’s emphasis was Mars with reluctant support for something happening on the Moon:

As the President stated we will prioritize sending American astronauts to Mars. Along the way, we will inevitably have the capabilities to return to the Moon and determine the scientific, economic, and national security benefits of maintaining a presence on the lunar surface.

I read that as him saying a return to the Moon is an option.

Chairman Cruz was far more adamant about a Moon mission in his opening statement, saying:

The Artemis missions and the entire Moon-to-Mars program, which have enjoyed consistent bipartisan support, serve as the stepping stone to landing American astronauts on Mars. In fact, this stepping stone approach is the law as enacted by Congress. We must stay the course. An extreme shift in priorities at this stage would almost certainly mean a Red Moon—ceding ground to China for generations to come. I am hard pressed to think of a more catastrophic mistake we could make in space than saying to Communist China, ‘The moon is yours. America will not lead.’

In the question and answer period, Senator Cruz asked about the return to the Moon and received this weak response from Mr. Isaacman:

I don’t think we have to make any tough trades here, Senator. I think if we can concentrate our resources at the world’s greatest space agency, we don’t have to make a binary decision of moon versus Mars or moon has to come first versus Mars.

So Chairman Cruz continued:

If China beats us to the moon, what consequences might America face?

Mr. Isaacman replied:

We certainly cannot lose…If we do not lead the way and we’re following, we may be following forever, the consequence of which could be extraordinary.

That response sounds a little better, though it may upset Mr. Musk who has a preference for Mars, particularly a Mars mission that has federal funds going to his company.

It appears Mr. Isaacman has forgotten that the Moon is a stepping stone to Mars and not a speed bump. NASA is almost ready for a nearby Moon mission that can be accomplished in weeks, but a Mars mission that will take years is not even close to ready, no matter what Mr. Musk says.

Republicans and Democrats need to hold Mr. Isaacman’s feet to the fire to ensure the Artemis program is fully funded and continues before any designs are set for a Mars mission.