Podcast: Avoiding a Nuclear Winter

Credit: wallpapersafari.com/

If you are looking for a heavy story, just listen into this week’s StarTalk podcast, “Nuclear Winter with Ann Druyan and Brian Toon.” You can hear all about the Future of Life award given to Carl Sagan and others for “reducing the risk of nuclear war by developing and popularizing the science of nuclear winter.” Yes, a great award for a bleak topic.

Ann Druyan (co-writer of the original Cosmos TV series, producer of the remade Cosmos, and Carl Sagan’s wife) and Brian Toon (Atmospheric Science Professor and one of the awardees) discuss the science that went into the nuclear winter idea back in the 1970s, as well as later briefings of the Vatican and Soviet government. Sadly, it appears the Russian’s were more open to the science than the Americans. Dr. Sagan and others battled with many leaders in the U.S. Government. Some things don’t change (or don’t change fast enough), so this battle within the U.S. Government continues. Of course, Putin is no Gorbachev, so who knows that he is thinking.

In fact, a 2017 paper by the Federation of American Scientists noted how Russia felt about the chance of nuclear war before today’s current events in Ukraine:

In other words, the United States has built and is building launch sites for nuclear missiles on the Russian border. This fact has been widely reported on Russian TV and has infuriated the Russian public. In June, Russian President Putin specifically warned that Russia would be forced to retaliate against this threat.

While Russian officials maintain that its actions are normal and routine, Russia now appears to be preparing for war. On October 5, 2016, Russia conducted a nation-wide civil defense drill that included 40 million of its people being directed to fallout shelters. Reuters reported two days later that Russia had moved its Iskander nuclear-capable missiles to Kaliningrad, which borders Poland.

Of course, our ability to survive as a civilization is a big part of the Drake Equation, which tells us the number of planets in the galaxy hosting intelligent life. So far, we are the only planet with intelligent life that we know about, and we cannot even agree whether launching a nuclear war will end our civilization. It is not a hopeful start to the quest for intelligent life.

Extra: Check out Mr. Toon’s TED Talk, I’ve Studied Nuclear War for 35 years – You Should Be Worried, for more on his concerns about nuclear proliferation. And if you are not scared enough, check out this article, “Even a Limited India-Pakistan Nuclear War Would Bring Global Famine, Says Study,” from the Columbia Climate School.

Russian Rockets No Longer an Option

Image (Credit): Antares rocket on the launch pad. (Northrop Grumman)

Northrop Grumman is switching from Russian-made rocket engines to U.S.-made rocket engines for its Antares rocket ships that bring supplies to the U.S. International Space Station (ISS). Russia has not shipped any engines since March following its invasion of Ukraine, so Northrop Grumman needs an alternative. It can fly two more missions with the Russian-made rockets in its inventory.

Firefly Aerospace in Texas will be able to meet these needs. In a press release, Northrop Grumman stated:

Firefly’s propulsion technology utilizes the same propellants as the current Antares rocket, which minimizes launch site upgrades. The Antares 330 will utilize seven of Firefly’s Miranda engines and leverage its composites technology for the first stage structures and tanks, while Northrop Grumman provides its proven avionics and software, upper-stage structures and Castor 30XL motor, as well as proven vehicle integration and launch pad operations. This new stage will also significantly increase Antares mass to orbit capability.

Fortunately, we have some redundancy in ISS cargo missions, with SpaceX able to pick up slack as necessary. In fact, Northrop Grumman will be contracting with SpaceX to handle three of its missions as it prepares for the new Antares system for mid-to-late 2024.

Profile: The Cosmosphere

Image (Credit): Exhibits at the Cosmosphere’s Hall of Space Museum. (Cosmosphere)

You may have visited the Smithsonian National Air and Space Museum or ventured down to Florida to visit the Kennedy Space Center, but have you heard of the Cosmosphere in Kansas?

Started in 1962, the Cosmosphere in Hutchinson, Kansas claims to host “…the largest combined collection of U.S. and Russian space artifacts in the world and telling the comprehensive story of mankind’s race to space unlike anywhere else on Earth.”

For example, here are a few of the items you can view at the museum:

  • Flown Liberty Bell 7 Mercury spacecraft;
  • Flown Gemini X spacecraft;
  • Flown unmanned Russian Vostok;
  • Flown Apollo 13 command module, Odyssey;
  • Apollo space suits; and
  • Russian Sokul Spacesuit.

You can also find material related to German V-1 and V-2 rockets, Cold War spying, X-planes, and more. The expanded multinational coverage of space and conflict makes this a unique destination.

Image (Credit): A German V-1 rocket from World War II in the Hall of Space Museum. (Cosmosphere)

Space Quotes: Russia is Pulling Out of the ISS? Maybe Not

Image (Credit): Russian cosmonauts headed for the ISS get ready to board the Soyuz MS-21 spacecraft prior to its launch at the Baikonur cosmodrome in Kazakhstan on March 18, 2022. (Roscosmos)

“Of course, we will fulfill all our obligations to our partners, but the decision about withdrawing from the station after 2024 has been made.”

-Statement by Yuri Borisov regarding Russia’s participation in the International Space Station (ISS), as quoted by Reuters. Mr. Borisov was recently appointed director-general of Russia’s space agency Roscosmos. However, like his predecessor, he may have spoken without thinking through the consequences. Time magazine quoted Vladimir Solovyov, an ISS flight director, who stated, “We, of course, need to continue operating the ISS until we create a more or less tangible backlog for ROSS. We must take into account that if we stop manned flights for several years, then it will be very difficult to restore what has been achieved.” In other words, the withdrawal may not be anytime soon. Not a very good start for Mr. Borisov.

Good News for US/Russian Space Relations

Dmitry Rogozin, the head of the Russian space agency Roscosmos (seal shown above), has been removed from this position. He has been in this position since May 2018. After his endless squabbles with NASA as well as juvenile behavior, relations between the two space agencies now have a chance to heal.

The new head of Roscosmos is Yuri Borisov, who was serving as a deputy prime minister in charge of Russia’s weapons industries. Sources call this a demotion for Mr. Borisov, who has not had luck with the ongoing war in Ukraine.

While Mr. Borisov’s posted credentials show no space program experience, if he can keep his temper in check and focus on space missions then the atmosphere will improve exponentially.