A Hopeful Study on Solar Flares

Posted on by onespaceman2000
Image (Credit): A graphic showing how space weather can impact eveyday technology. (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)

Now that we know solar flares can be worse than anticipated (per the study cited in the prior post), let me add some good news about another study that may have a solution.

The recent study, Terrestrial Space Weather Protection Through Human-Produced Mass-Loading, has a plain language summary, fortunately, that explains one possible solution to the damaging effects of solar flares:

The study presents a new way to protect Earth from harmful space weather caused by storms from the sun that can disrupt technology and power grids. The study shows humans can actively reduce the impact by releasing neutral gas from orbiting satellites. Once released, this gas turns into plasma and drifts to the edge of Earth’s magnetic field where it softens the effects of solar storms. Computer simulations show this method could reduce the strength of a major solar storm by more than half, potentially saving lives and technology. The proposed approach uses existing technology and materials, making it a practical future defense against space weather risks.

What we really have here is a draw, with the first study saying the impact from solar flares may be twice as bad as previously thought and the second study saying the impact can be cut in half. So we are back to where we started assuming we launch a new batch of satellites.

Maybe future studies will bring us closer to even better defense mechanisms, but it is good to know that new solutions are being proposed.

Study Findings: Regression to the Mean Can Explain Saturation of Geomagnetic Storms

Posted on by onespaceman2000
Image (Credit): A May 2024 image of a solar flare captured by NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). (NASA SDO)

Nature abstract of study findings:

Extreme space weather events on Earth occur during intervals of strong solar wind driving. The solar wind drives plasma convection and currents in the near-Earth space environment. For low values of the driver, the Earth’s response is linear, estimated by parameters such as the polar cap index based on ground magnetometer activity. Curiously, for extreme solar wind driving, the Earth’s response appears not to increase beyond a saturation limit. Theorists have advanced a host of explanations for this saturation effect, but there is no consensus. Here we demonstrate that this saturation is a manifestation of the regression to the mean effect arising from random uncertainty in the timing and magnitude of solar wind measurements. Our results reveal that data analysis underpinning the saturation theories is nonlinearly biased, thereby challenging the validity of the theories. Correcting for the uncertainties reveals that the Earth’s response to solar wind driving is linear throughout, and that the impact of extreme geomagnetic storms can be twice as large as previously thought. We show that regression to the mean is a fundamental property of the relationship between measurement and the truth, where the truth corresponding to the measurement is closer to the mean. This effect is particularly pronounced for uncertain measurements of extreme values and is likely to manifest across various fields, from extreme climate studies to chronic medical pain.

Citation: Sivadas, N., Sibeck, D., Subramanyan, V. et al. Regression to the mean can explain saturation of geomagnetic storms. Nature 655, 1143–1147 (2026).

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-026-10757-4

Study-related stories:

Wired – “An Extreme Solar Storm May Be Even More Devastating Than Previously Imagined”

SciTechDaily – “Earth May Be Twice As Vulnerable to Extreme Solar Storms As Scientists Thought”

NASA – “New NASA Study Says Possibly No Limit to Solar Storm Effects”

Space Stories: Too Much Satellite Sunlight, Sugar and Spice in Space, and Super Black Satellite Paint

Posted on by onespaceman2000
Credit: Pixabay

Here are some recent space-related stories of interest.

—Universe Space Tech: “The Earendil-1 Satellite, Equipped with its Large Mirror, Has Caused Discontent Among Astronomers“

The United States Federal Communications Commission (FCC) has granted approval to Reflect Orbital to proceed with testing its innovative Earendil-1 satellite. This spacecraft features a substantial mirror engineered to redirect sunlight towards the nighttime side of Earth. The primary objective of the startup is to augment energy supply to solar power facilities and illuminate extensive regions up to 5 kilometers in width. By the year 2035, the company intends to deploy a constellation comprising 50,000 such orbital reflectors. Notwithstanding the potential advantages for agriculture and emergency services, the initiative has elicited grave concerns within the community.

—CBS News: “Astronomers Discover Sugar in Space That’s Also Found in Raspberries: ‘Just Floating Out in the Galaxy‘”

The space between stars just got a little sweeter. Astronomers have detected a type of sugar in space that’s also found in raspberries and self-tanners. The sugar, called erythrulose, lurks in what’s called the interstellar medium: thin clouds of gas and dust littered between stars. Sugar does more than sweeten tea and powder doughnuts. Different varieties fuel our cells and even make up DNA. Scientists are itching to know how sugars form because they’re a key ingredient for life as we know it.

—Science Alert: “Vantablack: World’s Blackest Paint Could Solve A Major Problem For Astronomy“

Low Earth orbit is becoming increasingly crowded with satellites, and they’re quietly erasing our view of the Universe…Chaturvedi and a team of researchers in the UK think they might have the answer: Vantablack 310, a specific formulation of one of the blackest materials ever developed, intended for use on spacecraft. In lab tests, coating satellites with Vantablack 310 meant that only 2 percent of incoming light was reflected.

Note: Here is the podcast version of this post.

Space Quote: That’s All We Need in This Year’s Election

Posted on by onespaceman2000
Image (Credit): Solar flares on the Sun spilling radiation into the solar system. (NASA)

“In 2003, during a local Belgian election, a candidate received over 4,000 extra votes on a computerized voting machine — more than was physically possible, triggering an investigation…The leading explanation for each of these events is what’s known as a bit flip: an electronic glitch caused by radiation from space. Although uncommon, they can have significant consequences. And as our reliance on electronics continues to increase, so does our vulnerability to bit flips.“

-Quote from a recent article from Astronomy magazine titled “Our Planet’s Electronic Vulnerability.” The article goes on to explain how high-energy radiation from the Sun as well as deep space can cause a “bit flip” that is difficult to detect. Given the use of electronic voting machines in US elections, we can only hope that this radiation issue does not come up in the fall election. Asking the voters to “wait for the science” before jumping to conclusions is not a viable option.