Space Quote: NASA Cannot Do Everything in this Budget Environment

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“The current budget environment has significant implications for mission and safety risk. NASA has a very full mission plate. To the extent that their budget request is not fully funded, the leadership will need to acknowledge and make critical decisions with respect to program content or schedules, which will need to be adjusted to meet fiscal realities. Attempting to do all planned efforts on expected timelines will introduce unacceptable and unmanaged risk. The Agency will need to rely on its developed strategic vision, objectives, and architecture to establish well-defined priorities to ground its endeavors in reality – taking fully into account the risk-benefit tradeoffs.”

-Statement in the Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel’s 2023 Annual Report regarding NASA’s operating environment. One particular area of risk relates to Artemis III, which entails a crewed landing on the Moon. The report states:

In addition, prior to the Artemis III mission, NASA will need to address whatever issues arise from the Artemis II mission, including the possibilities of hardware (HW) and software (SW) changes to both the Space Launch System (SLS) and Orion. Orion flight time on Artemis III will exceed previous durations. Given that it is a new rocket, a new human capsule, and a new human spaceflight environment for this generation of NASA workers, it is not unreasonable to think that NASA will still have a great deal of discovery to do with every Artemis mission for the foreseeable future, and that both schedules and workloads will need to expand accordingly.

Space Stories: The ISS Succession Plan, Privately-built Moon Landers, and Working with Moonquakes

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Image (Credit): View of the International Space Station. (NASA)

Here are some recent stories of interest.

—Aviation Week Network: “Safety Panel Raises Commercial Space Station Transition Concerns“

Concerns over a “very tight” timeline for NASA to transition human low-Earth-orbit operations from the International Space Station (ISS) to commercial successors tops a list of seven concerns raised by an agency safety panel. The latest annual report by NASA’s Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel’s (ASAP) was released Jan. 25. The 56-page report expresses concerns over sufficient evidence of a viable business case to make NASA one of multiple tenants of at least one ISS successor. The effort is currently supported by NASA and the European, Japanese, Russian and Canadian space agencies.

—Astronomy.com: “Vertex Moon Mission Getting Closer to Launch“

 A new era in lunar research is coming, and Lunar Vertex is getting ready to lead the way. Lunar Vertex is NASA’s first so-called PRISM mission (Payloads and Research Investigations on the Surface of the Moon). PRISM taps into the Commercial Lunar Payload Services program that uses privately built landers to deliver NASA science and other payloads to the lunar surface. PRISM missions are meant to be lower-cost, faster-to-flight programs. There is a mass limit of just over 100 pounds (45 kilograms) — so the science instruments have to be small — and the budget for the first PRISM suite is just $30 million (excluding the lander and the launch vehicle). Lunar Vertex is first in line, and recently has hit a number of major milestones on its way to a June 2024 launch.

—NASA: “Shrinking Moon Causing Moonquakes and Faults Near Lunar South Pole“

As NASA continues to make progress toward sending astronauts to the lunar South Pole region with its Artemis campaign, data from a NASA-funded study is helping scientists better understand this strategic part of the Moon. The study presents evidence that moonquakes and faults generated as the Moon’s interior gradually cools and shrinks are also found near and within some of the areas the agency identified as candidate landing regions for Artemis III, the first Artemis mission planned to have a crewed lunar landing.

Will China Beat Us to the Moon?

Posted on by onespaceman2000
Image (Credit): A manufactured image, but it may be a reality soon enough. (Asia Times)

With the newly announced delays related to the Artemis lunar program, it is fair to ask whether the U.S. might fall behind the Chinese when it comes to a crewed lunar mission (of course, we won that battle 50 years ago, but you know that I mean).

All reports indicate that the Chinese wants to place humans on the Moon by 2030, but they are not expected to beat the Artemis timetable of a lunar landing in 2026. Of course, it is important that NASA stick to this timetable.

NASA Administrator Bill Nelson recently stated:

I do not have a concern that China is going to land before us…I think that China has a very aggressive plan. I think they would like to land before us, because that might give them some PR coup. But the fact is that I don’t think they will. I think it is true that their date that they announced keeps getting earlier. But specifically, with us landing in September of ’26, that will be the first landing.

Obstacles remain on what will prove to be a difficult mission even if it is a repeat. We already saw Russia’s failed attempt to simply land on the Moon last year, and the problems with last week’s NASA-funded commercial launch towards the Moon was worrying.

Nothing can be taken for granted in this new space race.

Moon Malaise This Week – Two Missions Impacted

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Image (Credit): Apollo 11 Lunar Module captured by NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter. (NASA)

NASA said we would have weeks like this one.

First we have the compromised Peregrine Lunar Lander floating in space. Astrobotic posted this update earlier today:

Given the propellant leak, there is, unfortunately, no chance of a soft landing on the Moon. However, we do still have enough propellant to continue to operate the vehicle as a spacecraft. The team has updated its estimates, and we currently expect to run out of propellant in about 40 hours from now — an improvement from last night’s estimate. The team continues to work to find ways to extend Peregrine’s operational life. We are in a stable operating mode and are working payload and spacecraft tests and checkouts. We continue receiving valuable data and proving spaceflight operations for components and software relating to our next lunar lander mission, Griffin.

Second, we now have an official delay of the Artemis II and III missions, which is the crewed trips around the Moon and then to the surface of the Moon. NASA made the following statement:

NASA will now target September 2025 for Artemis II, the first crewed Artemis mission around the Moon, and September 2026 for Artemis III, which is planned to land the first astronauts near the lunar South Pole. Artemis IV, the first mission to the Gateway lunar space station, remains on track for 2028.

Rumors about a delay in the Artemis missions has been floating around for some time based on earlier audit reports, so this is not a big surprise. It is possible that NASA decided to dump the Artemis news this week to get everything on the table with this latest Peregrine problem rather than have two bad weeks.

We will just need a little more patience.

Image (Credit): Artemis II map. (NASA)
Image (Credit): Artemis III map. (NASA)

Looking for Canadian Space News?

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This site generally covers space news from a US perspective, but there are plenty of other perspectives to consider as well. I will try to point out more of them as I go along.

On viewpoint is that of the Canadians. I found a nice website that covers the space news for that country. I recommend you visit Spaceq for an update on what the Canadian are up to. Some of the stories posted on the site now include:

Of course, Canada is a key partner in the Artemis program, including providing one of the astronauts for the Artemis II mission. Canada is also working on its own space missions as well, including plans to place a rover on the Moon.