Is Musk Still an Asset, or is He Becoming a Liability?

Posted on by onespaceman2000
Image (Credit): Earlier SN10 Starship prototype bursting into flames and exploding soon after landing. (NASASpaceflight)

Last week, The Wall Street Journal had a good story on Elon Musk titled “Elon Musk’s Latest Antics Have Some Asking: Is He Out of Touch?” It discuses his frat-like behavior challenging Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg to a fight, his strange behavior at Twitter, and the shrinking set of friends and colleagues able to keep him from going adrift in his own bubble. The story notes:

Such antics are leading some Musk supporters to worry aloud that he has lost touch, saying he is ensconced in a distorted reality that is warping his perspective and threatening his businesses at a time when he is trying to oversee multiple companies in different industries.

Of course, one of those companies is SpaceX, which has become the backbone of NASA and the US satellite industry. SpaceX also runs Starlink, which is now a key part of the battle against Russia as it supplies Internet services to the Ukrainian military.

Musk has styled himself as the Trump of Technology – breaking established rules, failing to pay his bills, attacking critics (in-house, as well), and generally seeing what he can get away with before it all collapses.

Can one distracted man manage all of these companies? Should one distracted man manage all of these companies? And should our government be so reliant on him in the space and defense arenas? Or is SpaceX becoming the next Wagner Group, a government-funded satellite that is starting to think it is smarter than its paymaster? We all know how that ended.

You can hear more about this reliance on one man in a recent On With Kara Swisher podcast, Why We Can’t Quit Elon with Ronan Farrow & William Cohan. Here are the podcast notes:

We’re talking about Elon – again – but this time we’re looking at the big picture: the tech titan’s “unprecedented power” over our the federal government and national security, as encapsulated in Pulitzer Prize-winning reporter Ronan Farrow’s latest New Yorker profile. William Cohan, a financial journalist and founding partner of Puck News, also joins to break down the varying fortunes of SpaceX, Tesla and Twitter, and the sustainability of those companies under a leader that is ambitious, but capricious. Stay til the end to hear Kara tell Nayeema why, despite his shenanigans, she still has empathy for Elon Musk.

You should also check out Ronan Farrow’s The New Yorker article, “Elon Musk’s Shadow Rule.” While acknowledging that some industrialists have had inordinate influence over US politics in the past, the piece notes:

But Musk’s influence is more brazen and expansive. There is little precedent for a civilian’s becoming the arbiter of a war between nations in such a granular way, or for the degree of dependency that the U.S. now has on Musk in a variety of fields, from the future of energy and transportation to the exploration of space. 

This really doesn’t sound all that sustainable, or wise. I hope Uncle Sam has a Plan B should Musk run it all into the ground or walks away with all of his marbles (assuming has has any left).

Russia is also Heading to the Moon

Posted on by onespaceman2000
Image (Credit): Russia’s Luna-Glob-Lander. (https://www.russianspaceweb.com/)

As noted in an earlier post, India left for the moon’s south pole last week, but it won’t be alone for long. Russia is planning to launch its Luna-25 spacecraft, also called the Luna-Glob-Lander, next month. According to NASA, the mission has two primary scientific objectives at the Moon’s south pole:

  • to study composition of the polar regolith, and
  • to study the plasma and dust components of the lunar polar exosphere.

The last Luna mission was Luna-24 back in 1976 and involved the return of lunar samples to Earth.

The European Space Agency was planning to be part of this latest mission until the invasion of Ukraine, so Russia is on its own now.

I imagine simpler missions like this will be necessary if Russia plans to eventually build a moon base, though finding a partner may be tough. It is clear that the US and Russia are no longer in a neck-to-neck race back to the Moon. Only China seems to have the stamina to compete with NASA’s Artemis program, though the US is still in the lead for now.

The Luna-25 launch is planned for August 10 if all goes well.

Starlink: DOD Pays for Ukrainian Service

Posted on by onespaceman2000
Image (Credit): Map of Ukraine. (BBC News)

Elon Musk got his way. The US Department of Defense (DOD) will be paying an undisclosed amount for the Starlink services being used in Ukraine. This is good news for the Ukrainians had they feared interruption of this vital link with the rest of the world, yet I imagine this will also put SpaceX’s Starlink system at greater risk given that it now is a clearly a subcontractor to the US defense initiatives.

As the media has pointed out, Musk started to cut back on Starlink services to make a point about it being used as part of the war, with one Senator noting:

I was personally disappointed to see discontinuation of full services at such a critical time for Ukraine self-defense…Do you feel there’s a connection between the availability of this capability to our partners in Ukraine in this conflict, and relationships we have with companies like SpaceX?

It appears the relationship has improved now that DOD has opened its checkbook. I guess the next move will be taken by the Russians. And if the past is any guide, things may get ugly.

If You Thought the Skies Were Crowded, Just Wait

Posted on by onespaceman2000
Credit: Starlink.

The Washington Post recently published a story, “China’s military aims to launch 13,000 satellites to rival Elon Musk’s Starlink,” that can only terrify astronomers here on Earth trying to view the stars. The title says it all – the space race continues to clutter the skies with more and more low-Earth satellites broadcasting back to the surface. It is a dippy Dyson Sphere that contains scientists rather than energy.

Starlink’s success in Ukraine really bothers the Chinese, who see the network as a lifeline for Taiwan as well. The article quotes Chinese military researchers, who state:

Once the Starshield is completed, it will be tantamount to installing networked surveillance cameras all over the world. At that time, military operations including the launch of ballistic missiles, hypersonic missiles and fighter jets will hardly escape the monitoring of the United States.

I would prefer the space race between the US and China focused on the Moon or Mars rather than local invasions, but that is the state of the world at the moment. Not that the race to the Moon was a completely tame affair. For instance, the US contemplated exploding a nuclear bomb on the surface of the Moon to impress the Russians and everyone else. Fortunately, Project A119 never happened.

Good Article: The Sad State of Russia’s Space Program

Posted on by onespaceman2000
Image (Credit):  A destroyed Russian tank in the village of Dmytrivka, Ukraine. (CNN/Alex Chan Tsz Yuk/SOPA Images/Sipa/Reuters)

Wired magazine’s latest article, “Russia’s Space Program Is in Big Trouble,” summarizes a sad trend since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. With all of the nation’s attention on an unnecessary war, the space program, like many things nowadays in Russia, has taken a back seat.

Problems can be seen with the spacecraft – two Russian capsules at the International Space Station (ISS) sprung leaks – as well as ground control. Assets at Russia’s spaceport in Kazakhstan are being seized, while corruption and other problems are delaying a new spaceport within Russia’s borders.

Russia also lacks a partner for a new space station after the ISS, and its mission to the Moon with China look’s tenuous. Does the country have a plan for the future beyond militarizing space?

The article concludes with these words:

The Soviet Union may have put the first human into space—but now, 60 years later, Russia faces a near-future in which it is no longer able to do that. 

No Pyrrhic victory in Ukraine will change this.

Extra: The Wall Street Journal also had a good article about the situation in Russia. The article, “Russia’s Economy is Starting to Come Undone,” includes an interview with Oleg Mansurov, who hoped to create the next SpaceX with his company SR Space. However, the situation in Ukraine has caused his investors to flee. As a result, he is staying afloat as an IT company for now. He notes:

We became more focused not on the development of a long-term product that would make some kind of qualitative leap but on simply becoming a classic business and generating revenue…We understood we just had to survive.